Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Self Interest, Collective Interest and Evolutionary Biology

 

Market economics is based on the foundations of Adam Smith theorising the ‘Invisible Hand’. To Smith, it was an individual’s pursuit of self-interest that lead unintentionally to collective interest and thus enhances social welfare. Of course, the term social welfare was an innovation that came decades later after Smith. Many economists have built their models and theories based on the Invisible Hand paradigm. There are no doubt many examples of the same. For instance a cab driver comes to pick up after travelling for 3-4 kilometres not because of his benevolence but because of his self-interest, his interest in earning daily bread, his interest in stepping to higher levels of income. A hotelier would keep the restaurant open even in times of pandemic not because he or she cares for the hunger of the people but for their own interest in earning and sustaining their daily bread. E-commerce delivery agents functioned in the pandemic partly because of their self-interest rather than an altruistic concern of people running short of groceries. Diffusion of innovation is again an outcome of self-interest being pursued that ultimately leads to collective interest. The firms innovate either to save costs or increase revenues, yet their innovations are rapidly copied by their competitor firms resulting in collectively being the same as before innovation but societally, the situation is emergence of collectively being better off.

 

Yet, while interests of individuals do coincide with the society, there are many occasions when these interests conflict. The conflict of interests between the societal needs and the individual benefits will result in the collapse of the Invisible Hand paradigm. Instances to the same are many. The paradigm of Tragedy of the Commons is primarily because of existence of such a conflict. One can take for instance the problem of overfishing. Fish in the ocean or the river or the village pond or lake are not owned by anyone in specific. Hence the agents cannot be excluded from fishing. If the lake were to be private property, the owner could exclude others from fishing in the lake. Yet if it is supposed to be collectively owned, the others cannot be prevented from fishing. Yet fish is rivalrous good. As each agent fishes for his  or her need, the amount of fish needed for others reduces. There is of course an equilibrium wherein the fishing quantity would be equal to the reproduction rate of the fish. If the amount of fish being caught is less than the reproduction rate, there will be surplus fish and vice versa. Each individual’s interest is best served by capturing maximum fish for himself or herself. Therefore they seek to capture the maximum fish possible. Every other individual in action too would do the same thus the depletion of fish would be the outcome. The property being commonly owned, thus termed common property resources would ensure the fish being depleted resulting in Tragedy of Commons. This is something common to pastures where cattle graze to deforestation to many other environmental issues. The resolution to the same has been suggested  to convert into private property yet as Elinor Ostrom demonstrated, there is a possibility of commons being governed successfully outside the paradigms of the market principles.

 

While Adam Smith might have conceptualised the idea of ‘Invisible Hand’ it was Charles Darwin who took the idea to the natural world. His theory of Natural Selection was influenced by the thoughts of Smith and David Ricardo. To Darwin, the attributes of the animal and the plant kingdom were derived through natural selection. These selections themselves would have been the outcome of the invisible hand or rather the pursuit of self-interest. The paradigm of self-interest definitely exists in  the animal kingdom but not necessarily results into the collective interest. Robert Frank presents an interesting instance of a conflict that exists between the pursuits of self-interest that would obviously beneficial to the individual in the short run but the costs are borne by the tribe as a whole. He observes the behaviour elk and their outgrown antlers. The elk with their outgrown antlers are relatively easy prey for their predators like wolves. They get easily noticed even in the thick undergrowth and makes life easy for their predators. In the Darwinian paradigm, the natural selection would have led to the development of smaller antlers or perhaps no antlers. Yet the answer to this puzzle lies in the intersections of individual behaviour at odds with the collective interest.

 

Male elks have to fight with other males to gain access to females. Antlers are the primary weapon in their fight to glory or death. The one with larger antlers would obviously win. Thus the incentive for each male elk would be to grow larger antlers. Thus the outgrowth of large antlers. But these antlers are noticed easily by the predators and thus susceptible to be killed relatively early. There is a trade-off something economists talk about. The elk with smaller or no antlers has a greater chance of escaping the notice of their predators. Therefore, their survival is likely for a longer duration. Yet in the absence of antlers or smaller antlers, they will find it impossible to capture the harem, the critical input in furthering their species. Therefore, the smaller antlers die down with a single species. The ones with larger antlers get access to the harem and are able to pass their genes to the next generation which too emerges with overgrown antlers. Thus Mendel might be proved right but the cost benefit analysis would be skewed against the tribe. To an individual, the smartness would be having a larger antler thus the access to the harem and passing the genes to the next generation. It is no doubt self-interest at best and concentrated benefits to the individual. Yet the individual is not the only one to bear the costs. The costs are diffused. The costs are borne by the tribe since it makes easy for the wolves to find their prey. Thus, what is individually smart become daft to the tribe to borrow from the words of Robert Frank.

Therefore, whether in evolutionary biology or human behaviour, what appears rational in the short term to the individual might not necessarily be so in the mid to long run to the society or the community or the tribe. The Invisible Hand works well when there exists an alignment of interests between the individual self-interest and societal collective interest. When there is a conflict between the two, the societal interest would find itself in adversity given the relative skewness in concentrated benefits and diffused costs.

 

 

 

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