It is apparent
that the talks between the government and the protesting farmers have broken
down with no end to the deadlock in sight. The farmer groups apparently want a
corner solution and seem to be in no mood to settle for any other solution. The
government did offer them a sort of face-saver in suggesting a postponement in implementing
the laws upto a year or year and half. This was perhaps in view of the upcoming
Punjab elections next year and something for the farmers to boast about in
those election. Yet as expected the farmer groups have rejected the same. The government
would perhaps be anticipating some divisions in the groups over the latest
proposals. It is conceivable there would be divisions, but would take time to
manifest. The government is perhaps prepared for a long waiting period. Most
groups are basically from Punjab with some from Haryana and a sprinkling from
other states including Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
Meanwhile there
is a clamour for a crackdown on the farmer groups. This is something that the
farmer groups themselves might be anticipating or hoping for at least. A
crackdown would be able to send their constituencies a message that the
government is not just anti-farmer but undemocratic and allows no space for
dissent. They want sympathy from the crowd especially the international
constituency, apart from the judiciary at different levels. Given the access to
funds they possess, they feel they can sustain the agitation for some more
time. Some of them are perhaps hoping a repeat of 2011 Ram Lila agitation which
saw the undoing of the UPA-II. While these are perhaps hopes, such a thing repeating
is unlikely to happen. Yet in another provocative measure, the groups have
called for a march of tractors of Republic Day. Their aim ostensibly is to
throw the functions into chaos, create conditions for violence, make the police
and security forces attack the farmers, might lead to loss of life, but to the
leaders, it would be huge brownie point that they feel would lead to the beginning
of the downfall of the Modi government. While their lawyers have assured of
peaceful march, there would be enough scope for provocation. Given the media
support they have both domestic and abroad, they know, the possibility of the
blame for violence being laid on the steps of the government would high. The government
therefore would have to be acting with hard restraint.
While the farmer
groups have indicated a march on Ring Road, it would take a slightest deviation
to enter the city and throw the celebrations in chaos. Given their conduct in
recent times and the provocative speeches being made including invocation of
Khalistani spirit so as to speak, trust would have to be minimal. The Supreme
Court while conveniently staying the legislation, has thrown the ball in the
court of the police with respect to allowing or otherwise of the January 26
tractor march. There would of course be lot of backchannel negotiations that
might happen and everything might indeed pass off peacefully, yet the presence
of naxal leftist and Khalistani elements make one suspect the possible worst to
happen. It is in this context, certain past precedents would be worth visiting.
The agenda of the farmer groups or at least those masquerading as farmer groups
is very evident. They want to create chaos in the name of perceived injustice. This
in itself is not unusual given such precedents happening in the early 1980s that
eventually led to the Operation BlueStar and its aftermath. The Sikh groups in
Punjab command support of clergy and the role of clergy in influencing the people
is very high. To a substantial extent, it is due to control of the clergy and
social and religious life of the Sikhs something similar to Abrahamic
religions. Use of muscle power to browbeat possible opponents is not something
new. The strategy would be to provoke the police and security forces. This was
precisely what happened in1982, one of the lead causes for inflaming of
tensions in Punjab.
As the tensions
in Punjab increased in 1982, Akali leader Harchand Singh Longowal called for
disruption of the Asian Games scheduled in Delhi from November 19 of that year.
It was the first time since 1951 that a major sporting event was happening in
Delhi and no doubt had attracted a lot of attention and interest. People across
the country were planning to come to Delhi to witness the Games. It was also the
first test for Rajiv Gandhi, a newbie into politics. He had entered into
politics in circumstances that arose post the death of his younger brother
Sanjay. Therefore, it was evident that the government would go all out in
ensuring the Games were a resounding success. Indira Gandhi adopted a
two-pronged approach to the Games. While she negotiated with the Akalis, on the
other hand she decided to crack down on Sikh visitors to Delhi. She managed to
hold on the Akalis till a day before the Games when the talks broke down. In fact,
the Akalis were led to believe their demands had been accepted but apparently
under the pressure of the Chief Ministers of Haryana and Rajasthan, Indira
Gandhi backed out. While she was able to save the Games, which went on
peacefully, the costs were very high. The roads to Delhi from Punjab passed
through Haryana. The visitors from Punjab were harassed routinely in the name
of security check throughout the state of Haryana. The stories of these
harassment that went back to Punjab inflamed the passions further. In fact,
many ex-servicemen joined the Bhindranwale after listening to these stories of
harassment. Those harassed included decorated veterans like ACM Arjan Singh
(Retd.). Lt. Gen JS Aurora (Retd.), Amarjeet Kaur,MP among others.
Today, to many
of those behind these protests, they feel conditions are similar. There is a government
in Haryana that they believe would go after the protestors. Bhajan Lal’s
policemen rustic and notorious for strong arm tactics were employed in full
flow. The current round of agitating leaders too expect the same. The stronger
the government would come on them, they feel would be advantageous. So far, the
government has managed restraint. The normal tactics used to handle such
protests do not work against the Punjabi agitators given the past experience
whether it was jail-bharo in 1983 or the Punjabi Subah movement in the 1950s or
even the anti-Emergency protests in 1975. Therefore, it would be test of nerves
and muscles on the part of the government to tactfully handle the current
agitation and allow it wear off. At the moment, its only time that would tell
how things would move in the future.
Comments
Post a Comment