Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Nehru and Buffer State Thinking

 

Former President Pranab Mukherjee seems to have stirred a hornet’s nest when in his posthumous book “My Presidential Years” apparently has made a reference to Prime Minister Nehru rejecting an offer from Nepali king to merge his state with India. This apparently happened during the restoration of King Tribhuvan while ousting the Ranas. The story has been floating around for decades, of course with semi-authenticity but with Pranab Mukherjee referring to the same in his book has reinforced the authenticity of the offer. It is highly conceivable that Tribhuvan did make an offer and it would not be unusual for Nehru to have rejected the same. Nehru did allow Bhutan and Sikkim to remain independent. In fact, the people in Sikkim wanted to join India, but PM Nehru allowed the monarchy to continue. It was left to his daughter Indira Gandhi as PM to ensure Sikkim acceded to India. It is possible that she would have annexed Nepal and Bhutan too at some point of time had not other domestic factors intervened including the Emergency, post-Emergency defeat and the Punjab uprising after her re-election. The reference in Pranab-da’s book has again led to the demonization of Nehru for pusillanimity in protecting India’s interests. It gets reinforced especially when India under Nehru was humiliated in 1962 by China. Therefore it would be interesting to decode the possible Nehruvian thinking in keeping states like Nepal or Bhutan independent.

 

Nehruvian thinking arose perhaps from the concept of buffer state that was dominant in strategic thinking of those days. The concept of buffer state between two rivalrous powers was not unusual. Such states have existed from times immemorial. In centuries gone by, the rulers would create nominally independent states which would act as a buffer with another powerful state. these buffer states would perhaps give a first line of defence to each of the kingdoms. In more modern times, states like Uruguay or Paraguay or even Ecuador came into existence as buffer between the powerful South American states. Thailand or Siam as it was known in the past essentially maintained its independence only because it could offer itself as a buffer between British India and French Indo China. The British India created Afghanistan precisely as a buffer against the then expansionist Russian empire. To Russian Tsars, in search of a warm weather port, a southward expansion was something inevitable. This led them to conquer Central Asian republics and move towards Persia. This obviously posed a threat to interests in British India. Therefore Afghanistan became the fulcrum of the Great Game something romanticised by Rudyard Kipling in his book Kim. The numerous adventures undertaken by the British explorers in Afghanistan to East Turkestan to Samarkhand to Bukhara are all part of folklore legends in their managing the buffer between the British India and expansionist Russian empire. Similarly, at the beginning of the twentieth century, Tibet became the buffer state between a possible prospective power of China and British India. It must be said that during those days, China was quite weak and Tiber was essentially for practical purposes independent. Nepal and Bhutan too served as buffer states to protect against a possible Chinese expansion.

 

Buffer states definitely served certain logic in the pre-World War days. There were rogue states which would capture these states. In European terms, it was akin to breaking the balance of power doctrine that came into existence post Westaphalia. It was made more explicit by diplomats like Metternich in post-Waterloo era and especially after the Congress of Vienna in 1848. Those days, the countries could conquer only through land in many instances thus the use of army. There were many naval states with long coastlines. Yet in European terms, naval battles could hardly be fought except with Britain. In fact, Britain by its virtue of geography had very unique characteristics. It had very strong navy that allowed it to capture the world so as to speak but yet its army was relatively weak. If only Napoleon or Hitler had managed to land their armed forces on the British shores, history might have well taken a different trajectory. Coming back to the Indian context, the only way the India could be invaded from the north was through the crossing the Himalayas. There were hardly any reported conquests across the Himalayas barring a skirmish or two. There was a cold and hot war through the Himalayan kingdom’s ranging from the Sikh rulers of Punjab seeking to conquer Tibet or the battles between kingdoms of Kashmir and Ladakh, Nepal, Bhutan or Sikkim happening in the Tibetian mountain plains.  Therefore, a buffer state like Tibet served the British purpose very well. Nepal or Bhutan or Sikkim in fact offered the second line of defence to the Indian Territory. Nepal though subdued and forced to secede current regions of Uttarakhand or Siliguri was allowed to remain independent with Gurkhas forming a key component of British armed forces. At the dawn of Indian independence, this was the position.

 

Nehruvian belief was being dictated by the European logic. To him, a buffer state would ensure China too remain within its confined territory and not engage in expansionism. The buffer state would not survive when a rogue empire decides to expand beyond its territories. All the buffer state would give is the kingdom to prepare for its defences. When China sent its troops to Tibet and annexed in varying measures, it would have been a warning bell for India. It was time for India to have shored up the defences for which it had more than a decade to prepare. China had borders with India for the first time in centuries. The buffer states like Nepal or Bhutan would hardly play a role in being India’s line of defence in the new circumstances. Sardar Patel had recognised the same about Chinese intentions in Tibet but Nehru was apparently unwilling to hear anything of it. Moreover, the three Himalayan states were part of Foreign Office and not the States which Patel was heading. Post the death of Sardar, nobody could challenge Nehru. In this context, his outdated thinking was the reason for his refusal to allow Nepal to merge with India. Rather than being naïve, Nehru did not grasp the significance of China conquering Tibet thus bringing it to the borders of India. To him, China would always be a peaceful nation even though after it constructed a road through Aksai Chin. It was this mistake that would have to be decoded rather than purely looking from a simplistic view of Nehruvian rejection of Nepali merger offer.

 

 

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