Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

Path Dependency and Inequities of History

There is an interesting podcast on Freakonomics about the inequality and compensating inequality. The link for the podcast can be found here. It is a two part podcast, the second of which is being awaited. But given the trajectory and the points of view expressed in the first of the series, some points could be discerned and can be discussed at some length in this post.

 

There is no doubt about the deeply embedded racial and class inequality that persists not just in the US but also across Europe, Australia and Canada among other countries. These inequalities have not arisen out of recent events but are deeply interlinked to the historical trajectories. In Australia, the inequalities are linked to the White treatment of the Aborigines while in New Zealand, the Maoris have suffered historical injustices. The White Man’s Burden might have been formulated by Kipling but was in practice for decades before. In fact Karl Marx advocated his own version of White Man’s Burden when he sought to defend the British Rule in India in 1852 by referring to his historical duty of civilising the Indians who were stuck worshipping ‘monkeys’. In the US, it was not just the Blacks or the African Americans but the Native Americans too suffered as they did in neighbouring Canada too. The abolition of slavery rather ending the inequalities led to another form of inequality emerging, an instance being the Jim Crow laws.

 

Inequalities caused by past actions move farther away from the normal thus accentuating and widening the differences. The causes could be natural or induced. There are occasions perhaps when some exercise of individual preference independent of others result in an aggregate that is diametrically opposite of the intended objective result in natural inequalities building. Segregation theories propounded by Schelling, Becker etc. refer to these natural issues. Some instances wherein these differences might arise naturally and unintentionally are discussed in the post “The Economics of Segregation”.

 

There are other occasions when inequalities are the outcome of induced and intended decisions. Either way these differences across strata when viewed through the prism of social or economic are an outcome of a path dependency. The path dependency might have been unintentional something like Columbus discovery of the US. Alternatively, the policies deliberately intended to promote socio-economic imbalances in favour of certain social section generate a path dependency that might be difficult to bridge. There might appear to inefficient path to take but it might appear a deviation from the current might result in sub-optimal outcomes. These are probably relevant in the unintended path dependencies. Yet in the context of an induced inequality across social sections, the continuation of the current path in the disguise of possible sub-optimal outcome through course correction is without doubt indefensible. The Freakonomics post essentially targets this induced segregation that is at the root cause of the current round of the racial conflict in the US. George Floyd was not an isolated incident or new phenomenon but deeply rooted in government policies undertaken over decades or centuries.

 

The focus of the podcast is on the racial inequities that have crept up in the US and the possible solutions to eliminate the disproportions. There are examples taken up to illustrate how inequalities are induced. The first example is from totally unrelated field like women’s soccer. Women’s soccer was discouraged at the beginning of the twentieth century. The First World War saw men going out to war while women managed the factories. It was in these factories that the women began to play soccer and soon began to attract attention and crowds. By 1920, the women’s football match attracted a crowd of more than 50,000. This was something unheard even in men’s football. Therefore, the men began their countermove to eliminate the possible competition from women. The Football Association (FA) which ran UK soccer banned women’s soccer on allegedly health grounds and used their power to force FIFA, the international governing body to follow suit. This meant women had practically no avenues to play soccer till the ban was lifted in 1971. By then, a lot of water would have flown through the Thames thus creating permanent inequity between men’s and women’s soccer. The roots of the current pay dispute by women soccer players in the US can be traced to this historical injustice suffered by women soccer players across the world.

 

Analogous to the same is the Federal Housing Policy announced by Frank Roosevelt as part of New Deal. The New Deal promised ease of housing ownership. To create employment, housing construction got a boost. Among the incentives were interest rate relaxations as with the down payments. There were greater incentives for the Veterans returning from War. Yet, in this entire exercise the African American community found itself at a disadvantage. In fact in some townships in New York among other places, the blacks were explicitly prohibited from ownership. The developer had to sign a deal with the Federal Housing Agency not to sell housing units to the African Americans and going further to prohibit resale to the African American community. Thus there was direct induced mechanism to exclude Blacks from house ownership.

 

In economics, the current consumption is a function of wealth and income. Income might be a flow variable thus subject to uncertainties but wealth is a stock variable that enables the level of marginal propensity to consume. These housing units when passed to generations appreciated tremendously in value thus enhancing wealth thus widening the differences that already were in existence. Current wealth and thus marginal propensity to consume is a function of past wealth and retention of past wealth. These are perhaps the key causes of the emergent inequities.

 

The solution that seems to be floating around many circles is the reparations. There are injustices and redressed needs compensation to those disadvantaged by these prejudices. Yet, there are many dynamics at work. While historically reparations have been imposed from Napoleon to Versailles to post World War II. Yet the context was geopolitical and the unit was the country and the victim too was another country. Herein, the reparation will have to be made to a community that is perceived victim of past play and the current government has to pay for the same. There are dimensions such as the scale of payment and its possible impact, the efficacy of such reparation, the groups that would be the beneficiaries of such reparations and the precedence it sets not just for the future but for other countries as well. Should India demand reparations from Britain for colonial resource and human exploitation? These need detailed analysis something that can be taken up in subsequent posts.

 

 

 

 

 


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