Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality

  The classical economics theories proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are numerous restra

O-Ring and the Anti-Commons


The post “Macrowikinomics of Pandemics” discusses around the O-Ring effect and its prospective impact on the production and business cycles. Implied is absence of a small element missing in the larger puzzle causing a halt in production. The production is hostage to a few components unimportant in standalone context yet very critical in production of goods and services.  The causes of these missing components can be varied.

In the current state of things, the supply lines being located in China are disrupted due to the prevailing pandemic thus having cascading effect on the production lines across the world. Economic theorists term the same as supply shock. Redundancies are normally not factored in given these shocks are likely to be rare and short lived. Yet in optimizing for the costs, the ruin events can potentially hinder the manufacture of output thus a downward spiral in the global marketplace.  A mechanism to overcome these supply shocks would be to build in the necessary redundancies. Diversification of supply sources can alleviate the problems caused by the disruption. Going forward, there might be increasing emphasis on supply security to factor in any prospective disruptions.

Yet, while there are man-made or natural shocks, there can be wilful hold-out of inputs towards a production of critical output. Michael Heller makes an important observation about the properties of fragmentation of ownership. An instance would buttress the point. In 1914 as Europe and the world by extension got dragged into the War, air force for the first time seemed to play a role in the war. In 1903, Wright Brothers had flown the first flight and within a decade, flying was quite common. While Europe started to build aircraft, US production was at a standstill. No one was in a position to build an aircraft. It was not for lack of technology. Technology was available, there was skilled labour and expertize yet the production was at zero. It had to do with the thousands of components that go into manufacture of an aircraft and the ownership of those components that lay with hundreds of individuals and firms. Any production of aircraft needed to combine all these thousands of components and thus the permission of the owners of the patents to these components. The patent holders had all the right to refuse the use without the payment of royalty they demanded. Negotiating with hundreds of patent right holders and satisfying each was near impossible. Any violation of patent rights was in all likelihood land the aircraft manufacturer into jail at worst and long endless litigation at best. This fragmented ownership causing disruption in production, research, development and construction of goods, services, infrastructure etc. was described by Heller as Tragedy of Anti-Commons.  In the case of aircrafts, the tragedy of anti-commons was overcome by legislative intervention of the US Congress. The Congress created a patent pool into which all patents relating to aircraft manufacture were placed in. Any manufacturer could use this pool to draw components from by paying a fixed royalty and thus go ahead with his plans. This method of compulsory licensing led to development of aircraft industry in the US.

Another instance of hold-out causing disruption in product development and commercialization was James Watt’s hold-out on rail engine patents. Till his death and expiry of patent rights, British railways remained a nonstarter.  For centuries, trade along the river Rhine remained hostage to the numerous robber barons as they were termed. These robber barons controlled various points on the river and any passage either cargo or passengers had to pay them the toll resulting in numerous toll points. It was only after the Congress of Vienna in 1815, that these robber barons were finally defeated. However, the waterways were soon replaced by the railroads that emerged rapidly across continental Europe. The anecdotal evidence from the biotech industry pointing to abandonment of commercializing drugs is another instance. There were research laboratories that developed the drugs for Alzheimer’s disease. Any drug is essentially a compound that is manufactured using different materials. These raw materials or active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are subject matter of patent. The patents were held by different individuals and firms. These firms refuse to part with the patents unless a very high royalty was paid to them. Implied was high producer reservation price with no ground for compromise. These hold outs ensure the drugs remained on the shelves and not commercialized in the market. It is a different matter, the drugs would have benefited numerous patients and their families by extension but for the hold out.  

Tragedy of Anti-Commons or Gridlock is not confined merely to technological products but applies to land too. Numerous instances exist wherein the refusal of land owner to part with the land leads to abandonment or disruption in construction of infrastructure projects. Construction of industrial corridors, highways, railway lines, airports, dams all need contagious land. Invariably, land ownership is fragmented with numerous owners. Any refusal by a single owner would invariably halt the projects. Payment of compensation of high amount would lead to cost overrun as also reduce the prospects of the project being viable. In fact, an official sanction to such a hold out the Land Compensation and Acquisition Act brought about the UPA government. In fact the one single piece of legislation given its sanction for very high compensation killed the entire infrastructure industry and through its spill overs, the large sections of the economy.

There is a Tragedy of Commons when comes to no clarity in ownership or no ownership of resources resulting in over utilization of resources. The Tragedy of Anti-Commons is the opposite of the same. Too fragmented and too extreme an ownership results in the underproduction of the resource thus the net effect being similar. Therefore, even though the problem existed for centuries or millennia by the way, it is being recognized of late and needs a Olstrom equivalent of Governing the Anti-Commons thesis. An induced O-Ring disrupting the global production and economic process.

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