Weather changes and food production

Agriculture is often characterized by high variability of production outcomes or, production risk. Unlike most other entrepreneurs, farmers are not able to predict with certainty the amount of output that the production process will yield due to external factors such as weather, pests, and diseases. While one cannot deny the rapid advances in technology in food production through better seeds, yield management, irrigation systems etc, weather and climate yet remain wild cards. The drought in South Asia in 1987 and consequent wheat imports and havoc in livelihoods still remains fresh after 25 years.  The origin of Arab spring in late 2010in Tunisia started with the failure to quell food prices and the rise of water wildcatting in Yemen flared up protests there. 

Some scientists believe that weather changes due to global warming can depress the food production beyond the current estimates.  UN estimates in 2011 revealed that food prices rose consecutively for eight months peaking in Feb 2011, an indicator of climate changes. Olam International, a leading supplier of rice warned of massive disruptions in food supply chain. Studies in Yale forecasted a fall in grain output in China. With the flooding of Mississippi in 2010 inundating 3.6 million acres of farmland, the dire forecasts seem to be coming true.

 The growing seasons are likely to shrink further and can imperil the lives of thousands of people living in these areas ranging from South America to sub-Saharan Africa to vast parts of Asia.  Areas like North East Brazil and Mexico may see growing season fall below 120 days affecting staple crops like maize.  Further, with temperatures rising, bean production could be hit in some Latin American countries.  In Africa even with moderate rains, for every day experiencing temperatures above 30 degrees, maize production can decline by 1%. Paddy and wheat are likely to get affected in India and China owing to rising temperatures.  By early 2011, several parts of central China, including the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, were experiencing the lowest levels of rainfall in 50 years. Many of therse areas affected included main rice producing region of China. To add to the woes, the fall in rainfall was experienced in the early stages of the growing season. With a prolonged drought and late onset of winter, Chinese winter crop, wheat, were also likely to be affected. Lower supplies of crops like cabbage, celery and bok choy were experiencing steep rise owing to fall in production on account of lower water supply. While China does maintain a strategic grain reserve, there was skepticism on how long this could run without affecting grain prices. If China decides to hold on to reserves and seek to make up the shortfall by buying from the world markets, the sheer size of China would shake apart the world grain prices.

Traditional economic theory suggests farmers adapting to new crop sowing and harvesting seasons in the long run. However, experts opine that the magnitude of change and speed of change might be faster than the time farmers take to adapt to new conditions. In certain cases, they may be forced to go in for new crops altogether. The US may survive initially since raw materials account for low component in price structures in the processed food industry, but the margin is very thin in the value chain existing from the farmer to the consumer in the poorer countries. 

Sources:  John Schoen, “Global food chain stretched to the limit”, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41062817/ns/business-us_business/t/global-food-chain-stretched-limit/#.T547AlKBKt8, Accessed on March 1, 2012; Austin Ramzy, “How will China’s Food Supply will weather the year of Drought”, http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/06/03/how-will-chinas-food-supply-weather-the-year-of-drought/,  Last Accessed on April 5, 2012;  Fred Pearce, “Climate Change Warning over Food Production”, http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn7310-climate-change-warning-over-food-production.html last Accessed April 6, 2012; John Vidal, “Climate Change in Tropics pose Food Threat to Poor”, The Guardian, June 3, 2011;, e360 Digest, e360.yale.edu/digest/climate_change_threatens_to_disrupt_global_food_production_un_says/2963/, Last Accessed March 29, 2012; Rosenzweig, C., M. L. Parry, G. Fischer, and K. Frohberg. 1993. Climate change and world food supply. Research Report No. 3. Oxford: University of Oxford, Environmental Change Unit.