tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-52302965418470641002024-03-21T11:49:57.627+05:30Random Musings, Ramblings and such on Theory and Likepk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.comBlogger324125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-66246017804255890692021-07-16T16:47:00.002+05:302021-07-16T16:47:20.647+05:30Decision Making as Output and Bounded Rationality<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The classical economics theories
proceed on the assumption of rational agents. Rationality implies the economic
agents undertake actions or exercise choices based on the cost-benefit analysis
they undertake. The assumption further posits that there exists no information asymmetry
and thus the agent is aware of all the costs and benefits associated with the
choice he or she has exercised. The behavioral school contested the decision
stating the decisions in practice are often irrational. Implied there is a continuous
departure from rationality. Rationality in the views of the behavioral school
is more an exception to the norm rather a rule. The past posts have discussed
the limitations of this view by the behavioral school. Economics has often
posited rationality in the context in which the choices are exercised rather
than theoretical abstract view of rational action. Rational action in theory
seems to be grounded in zero restraint situation yet in practice, there are
numerous restraints that impose certain constraints in the exercise of choices.
These have been discussed in the previous posts.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Since there exists cognitive
constraints or constraints in processing of available information, rationality
is thus bounded and not unbounded as assumed by the classicalists. Therefore,
one proceeds with the assumption of bounded rationality. The conclusions
however would not differ greatly in theory if these assumptions are overlooked
for simplicity. While the bounded rationality is discussed at certain length in
the past, the current post too seeks to view bounded rationality through a
slightly different point of view. The analysis posits on the principles of
production analysis or in specific, the context of output maximization subject
to cost constraints. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Different combinations of inputs can
result in the production of same level of output what in economics is termed as
isoquants. The firm can choose different combinations so as to be able to
produce desired level of output. While in the long run, the output remains
fixed and thus the focus would remain on minimizing the costs, the short run
scenario is usually different. In the short run, the firm can choose to produce
higher quantum of output yet it remains constrained by the costs of inputs
given the finite budget it has at its disposal. Therefore, the focus of the
firm in the short run would be to pursue a strategy of maximizing the output
subject to the cost constraints. The same principle will apply to decision
making of economic agents. The decisions what they take or the choices they
exercise can be termed as an output produced by an economic agent. Therefore the
choices they exercise can be subject to the same treatment as one analyses the
output. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In the production of tangible or
intangible output, the constraints of costs are measurable. Yet, the economic
agent’s exercise of choice is subject to constraints that might not be
measurable. For instance there are cognitive constraints. As the individuals
seeks to engage in cost benefit analysis, there are certain constraints in
terms of cognitive abilities of gathering and processing information. There is
no doubt that there exists a desire to gather and process all the available
information. Yet the information that is available might not be complete. There
might be information that would complete this gap but it might hidden or at
least the cognitive limitations prevent the economic agent from accessing and processing
the information. In the context of output maximization, there are inputs to be
considered. In the exercise of choices, there are several inputs that go into
the decision making. The economic agent would obviously consider the costs and
benefits of the exercise of choice. There would be thought process that would
bring about these benefits and costs and whether the net benefits would be
positive for the decision to be worth it. Therefore, there exists a thinking
process, albeit institutively at times, but nevertheless a decision making is
done through the analysis of inputs. Yet these inputs which an economic agent
would use to build his or her choice is not unbounded. There exists numerous
constraints in terms of information. Certain amount information might not be available.
Certain information might be available but would be too costly to process. There
might be transaction costs in terms of comparative analysis of various choices
that are possible to be exercised. There are costs attached to secure certain
information which might be available only to the few. Some information might be
possible to be accessed only by a few. While the others by observing the
actions of these selected few can seek to decode the signals thus the input
framework for decision making, it might not be feasible or there might be time
constraints. Time constraints might be independent of several other factors. Information
might be available but the processing abilities might not exist in the economic
agent. They might possess cognitive constraints which prevents the economic
agent from realizing the full impact either positive or negative of the choices
they are planning to exercise. In many context, there would be spillovers and
in some cases there would be unintended consequences which might not have been
accounted for. In certain cases, while certain spillovers might have been
accounted for, it might cover only a certain portion. Thus as one observes,
there are numerous constraints in terms of securing, accessing and processing
information from multiple inputs that would seek to prevent maximization of
output or utility that is expected by the economic agent. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Thus as we saw rationality is not
unbounded. It is not something wherein the economic agent would be able to
judge and leverage all information in terms of decision making. This is not
even factoring in the memory aspect wherein the decision maker might not
remember the past instances of results of similar exercises of choice. Thus the
ability to make a choice becomes a function of the associated and available
information and the processing abilities. Thus it becomes bounded by set of
certain constraints. The bounded rationality is not irrational. There exists a
different between irrationality and rationality. It might be perceived to be
irrational but those actions when viewed in the context of their exercise are
not irrational. While psychology might assume the agents to be irrational
something that behavioral school also subscribes to, yet when one views it
through the prism of costs and benefits and the cognitive abilities, the
decisions are in fact rational. They turn out to be suboptimal because of these
cognitive limitations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-26805843302241234942021-07-15T18:27:00.001+05:302021-07-15T18:27:41.219+05:30The Economics Origins of BCG Matrix <p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Economics has diversity of
applications across streams. The applications range from management to business
studies to national economies to politics to societies to history among others.
Economics by its very nature has direct applications in the field of business
theory. Many business theories, concepts, models, principles or whatever they
might be have their origin in the domain of economics. The past posts have
discussed such examples from the field of management theory that can be traced
to economic roots. One such application that would be discussed in the current
post would be the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Matrix. Sometime back, there
was a discussion on the application of BCG matrix in the context of sports
popularity and innovation. The current post however would seek to locate BCG matrix
in the context of economic theories and models. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As is well known to students of
management, BCG matrix finds its application in product portfolio management. The
products in the firm’s repertoire are mapped to two dimensions. The first is
the market growth while the second dimension is the market share. There are
four possibilities that arise out of the interaction between the two. The first
is the question marks which refers to the products which have uncertain
outcomes. They have low market share but have the potential for high market
growth. The second are the stars which as the name suggests not only command
significant market shares but also have high market growth rates. The third
quadrant are those which have high market share but having reached a sort of
saturation, they have low market growth. These are known as cash cows and often
are the bread and butter of the firm at the present. The fourth have low market
growth and low market share and generally on the way to obsolescence. These products
on the way to turn obsolete are called as dogs. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Each of these quadrants have their
origins in economic modelling. They can be linked to certain economic theories.
In the production analysis, economics relies on returns to scale and economies
of scale. While some text books might seem to see each other as synonyms, they
are not. They are different. They might be present in the same situation but
does not imply they are the same. Returns to scale are linked to the elasticity
of output with respect to the inputs. They measure the sensitivity of the
output with respect to the changes in inputs. On the other hand, economies of
scale are linked to average costs and output. They examine the sensitivity of
the output with respect to the change in average costs of production. Thus there
exists a difference between the two. The BCG matrix can be explained through a
resort to returns to scale and economies of scale. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Question marks are those which are
exhibiting increasing returns to scale but do not exhibit economies of scale. As
the inputs increase, the output increases more than proportional to the change
in input thus resulting in increasing returns to scale. On the contrary as the
output increases, the average costs of production drop down thus exhibiting
economies of scale. In the initial stages, the increase in output would be
relatively lower thus witnessing lower possibility of economies of scale. Yet at
this stage, even small changes in inputs result in more than proportional
increase in output thus causing increasing returns to scale. Stars are the
classic examples where one observes both increasing returns to scale as also economies
of scale. Given the increasing market growth, it is evident that the output is
increasing more than proportional to the changes in input. At the same time, as
the output has increased the average costs of production are declining. The
declining average costs of production are indicative of the economies of scale
in progress. Thus stars have both boosters if one might call it and thus are
the key part in the product portfolio of the firm. Thus there is no wonder why
the firms would like each of their product to be stars. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The cash cows already have passed
the point of significant high degree of economies of scale. Yet, given the
output level, small increase in output too would bring down the average costs
of production but not by much. The economies of scale would now have given way
to constant economies of scale. The scale might not be the starting point for
cash cows as even then there is a significant scope for the firms to leverage
economies of scale. Yet the firms have already passed the stage of increasing
returns to scale and are manifesting the constant returns to scale. The increase
in output is leading to a similar response from the output. As the cash cows
would perhaps mature, there would be marked decline in leveraging economies of
scale and returns to scale. In a slow but steady manner, in absence of any
external intervention or correctional measure, the returns to scale would start
to diminish. The same would be observed with respect to scale as the firm
begins to experience the diseconomies. Diseconomies are the outcome wherein the
firm’s average costs increase with respect to increase in output. Decreasing
returns are the case in point wherein the firm’s output is less than
proportional in terms of its response to changes in input. The situation where
both diseconomies of scale as also the decreasing returns to scale sets is
referred to as dogs. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For dogs to be converted back into
question marks or stars, there needs to be an external intervention or an
exogenous shock. Else it would be game over for these products. They have
enjoyed their prime and perhaps it is time for the firms to move on beyond
caring for emotions. Thus as one observes, the BCG matrix can be easily mapped
to the concepts in economics. It can be mapped through the two parameters of
economies of scale and returns to scale. The journey of the firm or the product
through the path of returns to scale and economies of scale are resembling of
the behavior along BCG matrix. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-37640580526942304472021-07-11T18:44:00.002+05:302021-07-11T18:44:15.186+05:30Minister's English and the Indian Elite<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The reshuffle in the Modi cabinet
has led to quite a few new ministers taking charge of new departments. A closely
watched department in the current backdrop was the Ministry of Health hitherto
headed by Dr. Harshvardhan who was dropped from the Cabinet. He was replaced by
Mansukh Mandaviya who found himself promoted from the Minster of State rank to
the Cabinet rank. The limousine liberals who are more than eager to find flaws
dug up an old tweet of Mandaviya on Gandhi and used this to begin mocking the
English of the Minister. It is possible that the Minister is not well versed in
English with perhaps his studies being in Gujarati. The language of English
might hardly matter in his work but the fact he cannot speak English is a
reason good enough to be mocked at and be questioned about the fitness to be a minister.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">This brings to the fore the question
whether the language becomes critical in terms of being a minister at the
centre or the states. In more precise terms, it is the command over English
that seems to matter to the wine tasting liberals. The fact that a subaltern
could occupy a post is something that cannot be fathomed more so if the same
happened to be from the BJP. It did not matter to them that Laloo Prasad Yadav
was hardly qualified to speak Queen’s English but as long as he was favoring
the liberals they were okay with the same. The amount of scorn and sarcasm that
seemed to be heaved upon Mandaviya is itself reflective of the barriers of
entry into elite Lutyen’s club. It is no doubt that command over English or Hindi
is a pre-requisite for succeeding in Delhi. One can recall at least two
political leaders from Karnataka late Babagouda Patil and late Siddu
Nyamagoudar who both failed at the centre perhaps for the lack of command on
the language. It was not they were incompetent but simply could not express
themselves in either English or Hindi and thus had to pay a price. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">It must be stressed that political success
as much as business success or for that matter any other domain is independent of
the language. There has to be good communication yet that does not
automatically translate into good English or for that matter Hindi
communication. One of the veteran Indian leaders Kamaraj was semi-literate who
barely knew a word of English or Hindi, yet he was the king-maker in the
selection of two Prime Ministers in independent India. The language was never a
barrier for him to put across his views at the Centre. If it was English that
mattered, countries that hardly spoke English would never have succeeded. China
or Japan or for that matter France, Germany or Korea all became economic powers
without the knowledge of English. Their advancements in science and technology
too are impressive with India lagging far behind. In fact, India’s success is
in the lower echelons of the value chain for all the competency in English that
seems to stress upon. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Therefore, it begs to be answered on
the near indispensability of English as factor for success. The reasons have to
do with the elitist structures created in the country. To the elite, there are
certain attributes that one must possess in order to be the member of the club.
It is natural that education in top premier college preferably abroad and
command over English is something pre-requisite. The elite have a fort to hold
on to. Their success over generations rest on their ability to keep the
structure small and confined to the few. There must exist barriers of entry
that would ensure the outsiders would not get an entry thus threatening their
existence not merely for the current generation but their progeny as well. Therefore,
they would seek to go miles to create barriers that would seek to destroy any
claimant to their hegemony. The Khan Market gang is closely knit and perhaps
related through familial relations. They have acquired a stranglehold over the
narrative over a period of time and thus their noise is something that is heard
over long distances. This is the noise that seek to leverage in their pursuit
to hold on to their monopoly. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">They have developed an ecosystem that
has flourished under the Congress rule. Therefore, anyone coopted by the
Congress in all probability will be absorbed by them. While they seek to
maintain their monopoly they also need to demonstrate they have subaltern
voices within them. They need to create an official subaltern so as to speak. Therefore,
the likes of Laloo Yadav will become a part of their narrative and thus
tolerated. One of the attributes is essentially flagellating Hinduism,
something relic of the British and the Islamic past. The post-independent India
in its pursuit to embrace modernity sought to put the blame on the alleged
regressive Hindu practices. This narrative is something wholeheartedly embraced
by this elite. Therefore, the ecosystem of the BJP is something that they
cannot accept. Thus all the more reason exists for them to come down on the BJP
establishment. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">English communication might not be
critical factor in achievement of power and prosperity yet it is a factor that
is a crucible in the admission to the elite establishment the Indians have
built upon the colonial legacy. The elite in India is a continuation of the
colonial elite system with a new system of brown sahibs replacing the white
sahibs with their own enjoyment of Veblen goods. The current establishment is
seeking to dethrone the elite as existent today. Given their existential
struggle so as to speak, they are waging a rearguard battle. Their competencies
perhaps lie in noise and that has mattered rather than the signal. The outbursts
and mocking of Mansukh Mandaviya is an outcome of the same. He is not the first
one to be at the receiving end neither he would be the last one. Yet, while
they might seek solace in creating a narrative against the subaltern speakers,
it must be mentioned that the broader narrative is turning against them and new
Indian elite is on the way up. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-27795078993627363862021-07-08T16:02:00.002+05:302021-07-08T16:02:25.616+05:30Decoding the Cabinet Reshuffle<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">It was hardly a routine cabinet reshuffle.
The reshuffle coming almost in the middle of the term was essentially a reset
of the government in the run up to the elections of 2024. It was equally about
those were dropped as much as it was about those who were inducted or promoted.
At one level, it is a step towards elimination of independent charges being
handed to ministers of state. At the same time it was about the performance being
the absolute parameter with reputations hardly counting anything. It would not
save some senior figures while it would induct quite a number of relatively
young parliamentarians perhaps giving them a chance to prove themselves. There were
some losers and few gainers as usual but the unmistakable signs of PM’s
footprint was visible throughout. There appeared to be strong homework with
respect to the competencies and the castes. The ministry was not about
competency alone but an integration of the same with the caste and regions. In other
words every region and caste would have something to cheer about. It was about
a signal to the allies and the prospective allies and the opposition alike. If JD-U
or Apna Dal have to climb down from their earlier hardcore stance, it was
equally about sending signals to estranged allies like Shiv Sena or Akalis that
they might no longer be welcome. In choosing a 77 member ministry, it is
evident that hardly any space exists for expansion. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">At the outset, it would be perhaps
bad for Harshvardhan who had to take the blame for the second wave of the
Chinese pandemic. The heads had to roll and it was Harshvardhan despite his
very good handling of the first wave. The fact that Sadananda Gowda had to quit
also had to do with the aftereffects of the second wave with serious shortages
of medicines all over. It is different matter that Gowda had Damocle’s sword
hanging over him since 2014 when he faced often the routine downgrading of his
portfolios. It is different matter that his junior Mansukh Mandaviya has been
elevated to take charge of both Health and Chemical and Fertilizers. Ramesh
Pokhriyal had to go on health reasons though he had done some good work in the
New Education Policy. A few junior ministers were expectedly asked to leave.
Santosh Gangwar’s exit might be little puzzling but age might be against him. The
decisions on Bengal were expected given the poor performance in the state
elections. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Yet what turned out to be the story
of the day was the dropping of senior ministers like Ravi Shankar Prasad and
Prakash Javadekar. The social media vibes might have gone against them yet they
would be merely one factor in the decision. To Prasad, the Twitter fiasco might
have gone against him despite his relative success in law ministry. The assertion
of judiciary yet again also seems to have gone against him. To Javadekar, it
was his failure as I&B Minister in government communication in the second
wave that might have sealed his fate. His work in the environment ministry
might not have been strong enough to compensate for his shortcomings in I&B
Ministry. The signal however is strong enough that no minister however senior
he or she might be can take their place for granted. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There have been new inductions. At one
level, Modi might have fallen back on Gujarat as evident in the case of the
Health Ministry. Hardeep Puri has been suitably rewarded. The glamour lies in
the railways were a technocrat in Ashwini Vaishnav having been given the
charge. To Vaishnav, there is the additional charge of the IT and
Communications. Dharmendra Pradhan goes into education, a sort of promotion
despite his failure in containing oil prices, something now being in the domain
of Hardeep Puri. It will require the diplomatic finesse of Puri to negotiate
with his Arab interlocutors. Piyush Goyal has Railways taken away from him but
handed over Textiles. Smriti Irani is left with Women and Child Development. Though
it might sound unpopular, there is somewhere a signal, her administrative
skills are not top notch and therefore she is been offered or continued with
lesser known portfolios. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Narayan Rane’s induction was no
surprise given his power base as also BJP’s desire to expand aggressively into
the Konkan. Jyotiraditya Scindia was rewarded, a compensation for his efforts
to dislodge the Congress government in MP in 2020. Sarbananda Sonowal was
inducted something expected after he relinquished his CM-ship to Himanta Biswa
Sarma a couple of months ago. There have been four inductions in Bengal and one
would wait and watch their performance and the impact it has on Bengal
electoral fortunes. Tripura gets its first minister at the Centre while Manipur
makes it appearance after around 20 years. Kiren Rijuju becomes the only second
from the North East (excluding Assam) to become a Cabinet rank Minister after
PA Sangma. Bhupendra Yadav gets rewarded after his good work in the party. There
are a few who get into the ministry after being parliamentarians for a fairly
long time. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There has been an attempt to reinvigorate
certain ministries like skill development. These are basically lackluster shows
but have a potential of being game changers. One would wait and see how this
would turn out. The fact that Narendra Tomar is retained in Agriculture
demonstrates the PM’s faith in him the view of farmer protests over the last
few months. There is a task of privatization in different streams of railways.
Similarly there is a task of reforms and privatization in ports and shipping. There
is a need to revitalize the small and the medium sector. The labour reforms
have to be notified and brought into force. There is question of India’s
recovery as one begins to build life afresh after the second wave while the
sword of the third wave is hanging all over the heads. Therefore the task of
the Health Ministry becomes even more critical. There is also the necessity of
reviving industries and thus it too poses a challenge. The bigger ministries
have remained untouched however, there would be greater expectations as many
challenges have to be counter-acted with. On the whole, it has been a good
exercise but the work has just begun. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-74850042864877396342021-07-07T16:53:00.002+05:302021-07-07T16:53:12.771+05:30Central Encroachment into Cooperatives <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Modi government is set for a
Cabinet reshuffle. In the midst of the reshuffle, there come the news of
creation of new Ministry. The ministry is of the Department of Co-operation. The
intended objectives seems to be facilitating the growth of cooperative
societies across states and build by multi state cooperative societies. The cooperative
movement while having roots across states is confined in terms of its structure
to a single state and cannot go beyond the boundaries of the state or perhaps the
district. Amul for instance would be confined to Anand district and not go
beyond the same. The same thing would perhaps hold good for Karnataka Milk
Federation. This is true of many cooperative societies across the country. The ability
to leverage the scale and scope is constrained thanks the legislative framework
in place. If there needs to be changed to allow the successful cooperatives to
flourish, there needs to be changes in the legislative and governance
framework.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There might be questions about the
feasibility of a cooperative society in the contemporary economy. They emerged
in a certain context of the India economy and society. They represented a
certain specific form of organization that was essential at some point of time.
It was the Indian innovation to the Marxian idea of the commune ownership. It perhaps
derived inspiration from the Lenin’s practices in the Soviet Union, though they
did exist a cooperative movement already in India. It was perhaps an answer to
the British innovation at least in the Indian context of the modern firm in
textile or other industries that emphasized profit maximization. It was an
outcome of a desire to pursue collective welfare at least intended in theory. The
individual capitalist profits were supposed to be replaced by the collective
ownership and thus sharing of surplus with all the stakeholders. Maybe it was conceived
as to satisfy the labour getting the adequate rewards in line with the productivity
it has manifested.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yet with passage of time, the
unintended consequences did manifest in ways one did not imagine .the
cooperative societies became tools of money laundering. They became vehicles
for fund mobilization for political parties. They became the breeding grounds
for future political leadership. They became a tool around which someone could maximize
their profits at the expense of someone else in the name of promoting equity. Barring
few, all cooperative societies and organizations hardly sought to serve the
need they were supposed to do. They hardly the filled the gap in building Indian
economy’s new organizational structure. The cooperative movement was to coexist
with the private sector yet it hardly gave any contribution barring an
occasional success or two. In this context, it would have been prudent to have
allowed cooperative organizations to develop into a limited liability company. Yet
however, for reasons more political more than anything else contributed to the
continuation of these organizations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The cooperative movement is subject
to state legislation and is part of the state list. They have ensured their
dominant lobby to influence policies at the state level. They have managed to
secure political prominence that allows the parties to hold power at the
grassroots. In fact, states like Maharashtra or Gujarat have seen lot of power
influence through these organizations. Each government would attempt to seek
control of the cooperative societies and similar organizations. Many a
battlefield in local political superiority are contested in the domains of the
cooperative movement. There needs to be exertion of control in seeking to build
reforms and further consolidate the organizations to leverage scale and scope. Therefore,
there does exist merit in seeking to make these organizations go national from
local. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At the outset, it must be conceded
that politics is the reason behind their survival. There is a good case
building up to contest their continuity. Yet, the current government seems to
have opted not to confront the existing structure. It might be politically
expedient to do so. It is apparent the Modi government wants to take control of
the cooperatives. It is too lucrative to be left to the control of the states. The
power to the state capital lies through these cooperatives to a good extent and
the power to the centre lies through the state capitals to a substantial
extent. In this context, it is highly tempting that the Centre would attempt to
take over the cooperatives directly or indirectly. This is what precisely the
Centre seems to have done with the latest tinkering of the rules. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Centre has now got into the game
of cooperatives. It might require a change from the state list to the
concurrent list. The Centre is using the camouflage of the necessity of scale
and scope to mark its entry into the movement. The real agenda is however different.
It is about controlling power in these organizations. It is about contesting
the power of the opposition ruled cooperatives, something thorn in the flesh in
states like Maharashtra etc. The ruling BJP at the centre seems determined not
allow a free run to the cooperatives. They apparently intend to bring the
Centre into play as a significant player thus seeking to disrupt the movement. They
intend without doubt to slowly bring under their ambit the cooperative movement
albeit indirectly. The feudal lords of the cooperative movement would perhaps
be compelled either to back the ruling party or facing the central wrath. The RBI
control of the cooperative banks few months ago was a first step in this
direction. The current moves seem to be a continuation of the same. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Prima facie, it goes against the
very concept of maximum governance minimum government. It is only seen as an
expansion of the government. However, it seems the government would have to be
pragmatic when it comes to achieving its objectives. The primary objective
would be the control of the institutions something they would not let go. This seems
to have ruled the basis for decision making in terms of creating new ministry
for the cooperation. The rest is alibi or maybe to be charitable the
commentary. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-54326466960831667712021-07-06T16:31:00.001+05:302021-07-06T16:31:01.895+05:30 People and the Third Wave of Chinese Virus<p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The second wave of the Chinese virus
induced pandemic seems to have abated in most parts of the country. Yet Kerala
continues to defy the projections. Maharashtra too continues to report high
number of cases. The scenario in North Eastern States too is not very encouraging
though in absolute numbers seems less. The situation however has improved in
northern and western states where the cases have dropped down dramatically. The
states in the South apart from Kerala seem to be under control though the
numbers are still high for comfort. In this backdrop, the states and union
territories are opening up their economies and societies. While there are
restrictions, the economy seems to be moving back to the days of pre-second
wave. The business is likely to pick up in the weeks coming ahead. Yet while
one seeks to recover from the second wave, the fear of a third wave seems to
linger on. There is a feeling that this might impact children more and thus a
need to prepare for them. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Secondly, there is also issue of
vaccinations. The pace of vaccinations has improved over the last couple of
weeks but given the population, it still seems slow. The rate limiting step to
vaccination seem to be availability of vaccines which in the context of India
still are only two. The other vaccines are just making their way into the
society. Yet, while there are fears about the third wave linger on, people seem
to make the best out of the gap the virus seems to have provided for the
moment. They want to make the best of the breather before they are locked in to
their homes for the lockdown version 3.0. This has led the people to go for
vacations something akin to the revenge tourism. People seem to be flocking
tourist destinations like Himachal Pradesh where there is no requirement for a
negative RT-PCR test. For instance in Goa, given the requirements of a negative
RT-PCR test, people seem to be giving Goa a miss but approaching those
destinations where requirements are easy. This brings to the fore many
questions on the safety and long term implications relatively speaking of the
people.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The tourists seem to be giving the
social distancing for a toss. This is something visible even in the markets in
the city but this is something happening at a different strange place. Social distancing
might be given a miss given the sheer size of the population but the tourists
seem to have given up the masks. The videos coming out from various hill
stations indicate the missing of masks. This is something that is difficult to
forget. It must be remembered that the country has not come out of the
pandemic. The population that is vaccinated is still relatively low given the
demographic size. The countries that were believed to be success stories are
facing struggles in coping with the new waves of the Chinese virus. For instance,
Israel and Britain both have recorded in excess of fifty percent of the
vaccinations are facing the third or the fourth wave. The only encouraging sign
is the hospitalizations are relatively low and deaths continue to be very low. However,
this does not mean the virus has not disappeared. In the context of India,
given the sheer population, the increase in cases too would be very high in
terms of absolute numbers. While the experts are of the opinion that the third
wave is unlikely to be dangerous and likely to be less intense compared to the
first wave leave aside the second wave, there does not seem to be room for
complacency. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This is something that has to be
stressed. The vacation spots are open and it would be good for the local
economy. The local economy in tourist places are suffering and therefore there
needs to be opening of opportunities for the distressed section. Yet there are
trade-offs. The trade-offs are something that are too costly to be resolved. It
is not about one individual but the multiplier effect. The virus has a
multiplier effect unlike non-communicable diseases which are not
multiplicative. For instance, the probability of someone dying in accident does
not increase just because somebody close to him or her has died in an accident.
Yet to everyone contracting the virus, there is an increased probability
perhaps exponentially of the others contracting the virus. This multiplier
effect is what would make the tourism or other service industries vulnerable to
the waves of the pandemics or even the recess between the pandemics if one
might term it so. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The authorities have to plan for the
social distancing and the mask norms for the tourists or for that matter the
shoppers in the malls and the markets. It is alright to open up the economies
but there cannot be a compromise on the masks. The different tourist spots have
to insist on the visitors wearing masks at the least. The supervision must be
strengthened. It might go against the fundamental rights and the informed
consent but in case of possible externalities, there must be insistence of
meeting the collective interest rather than subservience to individual
interest. It is the dichotomy between the individual self-interest and
collective interest which results in the rapid spread of the virus compelling
the lock-downs. The individual self-interest takes precedence when the
aftereffects are not multiplicative and are independent. The collective interest’s
gains precedence when the aftereffects are multiplicative. The pictures and the
reports coming from various tourist spots and markets are reflective of
individual self-interest overriding collective welfare given the weakness of
the enforceability of the same. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There might or might not be a third
wave. The fears might be exaggerated. Yet the way the second wave caught India
napping cannot be allowed to be repeated. History repeats first as a tragedy
and then as a farce. It would be politically devastating for the ruling parties
if the third wave were to emerge in full intensity. In the case of Spanish flu,
the second wave was the strongest followed by relatively weaker subsequent
waves. The same might be observed in the case of the Chinese pandemic as well. Yet
given the artificial nature of the virus as suggested by numerous studies, it
cannot be taken for granted. There must exist a suitable mechanism to prevent
the possible intensity of the wave. It begins with the simple mask. The people
at the heart are responsible rather than the state. The people must begin to
view it seriously and not lose guard. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-33777213347431252202021-07-02T19:41:00.002+05:302021-07-02T19:41:25.818+05:30Teaching Economics: Complement Rather Than Compartmentalize <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">To students of economics, it might
prove to very interesting subject. Yet to many others economics evokes a
phobia, a phobia of those graphs and calculations and theories and assertions
often contradicting and often supplementing and what not. Irrespective of the
context, there is always the other hand which would forecast very differently. This
is something a puzzle to the outsiders or what they might call an economist’s
hedge but to economists it is about viewing things in different perspective and
the manner in which the outcome would differ following the change in any of the
variables. Teaching economics therefore is a challenge in the sense of
convincing the students of the validity of the theories without evoking the boredom
associated with the ingraining of the theoretical contours. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Economics teaching at many a level
especially down the elite grade is all about stereotyping. It is about regurgitation
of the text books. Text books themselves would be a compendium of existing body
of knowledge yet many text books would rarely go beyond the known theoretical
boundaries and thus invoke very less practical approach. The context therefore
would be the divorce of economic theory with practice. There seems to be little
in teaching economics that would be of relevance to practicalities of life and
everything with some abstract context. This is all the more depressing since
economics analyzed at length would be unearthing interesting insights into the
practical applications in real life. Furthermore, economics brings to the fore
the isolation of each of the sub contexts of sub topics rather than an
integrated approach. It might make sense to decode these in isolation in the
text books yet there would be hardly be a case for seeking to decipher in
isolation in teaching the subject. There are many concepts which have same
foundations yet the background in which they are taught are extremely different
thus leading to students, the future practitioners to believe they are very
different like chalk and cheese. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The supply and demand, the popular
manifestations of economics in the mind of the common man or a woman for that
matter evolve from the same roots. It is the response to a certain stimuli. Keeping
isolated all the factors, it is about the response of economic agents to change
in prices. It is about the relationship between the quantity and the price. It is
just that the agents differ in their response based on which side of the aisle
they find themselves in. those on the producer side leads us to the question of
supply whereas those on the side of consumers leads one to an analysis of demand.
Therefore it makes absolute sense to seek to unearth insights in an integrated
manner rather than both being in isolation. While demand and supply interfaces
through the concept of equilibrium are studied, the same cannot be said of many
other concepts. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Another concept that does yield
similar and complementary outcomes is about the utility. Utility is about the
satisfaction of the economic agents. In the context of consumer, the satisfaction
is something relative and abstract. Thus there arises two ways of measuring
utility one through the cardinal and the other through the ordinal. The concept
of satisfaction arises to the agents on the producer side too. The producer
utility is nothing but the returns they generate or the profits they seek to maximize.
In contrast to consumer side, the profits are objective and thus would be
cardinal. While they might appear different in practice, the theoretical roots
remain the same, something untouched by the current economics teaching
orthodoxy. The concept of increasing returns to utility finds itself complemented
by the increasing returns to scale. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Another set of analogues concepts
are linked to the indifference curve. Indifference curve as one knows is a
locus of such combinations of goods that would yield the same level of
satisfaction or returns as one might measure it. In the scenario of utility
analysis, indifference curves analyze those combinations that yield the same
level of utility. They are also known as iso-utility curves. When one gets into
production analysis, there emerges the concept of isoquants. The isoquants are
those combination of inputs that yield the same level of output. Both isoquants
and iso-utility curves are rooted in the same anchor of indifference curves. Yet
the way they are taught would lead to a conclusion that both are very different
and no linkages to each other. The equilibrium in both the contexts are linked
to the constraints. The income is the constraint in the consumption side
whereas the budget of the organization is the constraint on the producer side. The
former is called the budget line whereas the latter is called the iso-cost
line. Both are anchored to the same roots yet their treatment becomes different
when they are taught in the class. At this stage it is important to note that
this isolated or compartmentalized analysis is something that can distort the
views being formed by the students of economics. The compartmentalization is
something that must be rid of. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As one teaches economics, it must be
demonstrated of the integration that happens. Economic agents are the same,
just that their response differs based on their self-interest or their
immediate needs. This must be highlighted. For instance, the indifference
curves might be encompassed with both the utility and producer side thus
bringing to the fore the linkages between the two. The supply and demand sides
can be taught in parallel. In the fact the consumer equilibrium and the producer
equilibrium too can be taught in parallel post the discussion on the
indifference curves. The above illustrations are some instances where there
exists a potential for integration of various topics rather than viewing them
as discrete. There is a continuum and not necessarily discrete when one views
economic theory and concepts. This is something that has to be highlighted. The
underlying foundation of economics lies in exercise of choice on the part of
the agents. The foundational arguments for exercising these choices remain the
same thus little difference in the theoretical evolution. It is only the
variables that might change and the manifestation of response that might
change. This has to be brought to the attention of the students and thus of
critical importance. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-75692901373079833752021-06-30T20:05:00.004+05:302021-06-30T20:05:29.804+05:30Woke Protests and the Olympics <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Sports and politics are hardly
divorced from each other. Each can be a means to achieve an intended objective.
To Hitler and his Nazis, the 1936 Olympics was an instrument to tell the world
their alleged superiority. There were open voices of racism through that
Olympics. In 1972, Palestinian terrorists killed ten Israeli sportsmen after
kidnapping them from the Olympic village. The treatment of Blacks in South
Africa was not merely confined to sports but in fact sports played a major role
in aggravating and later elimination of racism. The 1986 Commonwealth Games in
Edinburgh were boycotted due to the British policy on South Africa as did the
African countries in the 1976 Olympics due to New Zealand rugby tour to South Africa.
The 1970 ban on South Africa in cricket was caused by their refusal to allow to
Basil D’Olivera, a coloured cricketer in the England cricket team. In 1968
Olympics at Mexico, Tommie Smith and fellow medalist John Carlos raised a black
gloved fist when the US national anthem was being played during the medal
ceremony. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The issue has got fresh traction
owing to the alleged surfacing of racist issues in the United States over the
last year or. The Black Lives Matter (BLM) has politicized the treatment of
Blacks and has encroached into the sports domain. While there is doubt, racism
is inherent in the US, movements like BLM or Antifa are hardly concerned with
the Black welfare and more keen to score political points. Yet their approach
has won audience with many deciding to support for instance by taking the knee.
There is strong tendency to demonstrate woke and the events of the last year in
the US have given fresh opportunities for the same. The protest modes like
taking the knee or painting the ground or one’s clothes through rainbow
colours, the symbol of LGBT movement are often indicators of expression of woke
instincts or tendencies. In fact, someone not doing the same would be hounded
out with their career itself in threat. The opportunity costs of not performing
to woke requirements is perhaps too high that ensures high degree of
compliance. The tendencies of demonstrating woke credentials touched the Euro
2020 which has skilfully negotiated and sidelined the same so far. Yet the same
might not be said of the forthcoming Olympics in Tokyo. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The International Olympic Committee
(IOC) had banned political protests at the Olympics. They wanted to avoid the
repeat of Black Power Salute version of 2021. It is also difficult to visualize
which would be the right protest and the protests which would be illegitimate. There
is no question of a sporting event becoming a tool for politicking of those
vested interests. These vested interests have virtually no desire of
under-privileged welfare but would seek to use them to make political points
and perhaps gain power. Yet, the pressure on the IOC is significantly high. It is
evident from the fact that the IOC is seeking to climb down from its earlier
maximalist position. The IOC is apparently planning t allow protests and
protest messaging at certain places. These include the introduction of athletes
before the commencement of the event, the Olympic village among others. Yet,
the allowing of protests during the medal ceremony continues to remain
prohibited. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The messaging of IOC signifies it is
susceptible to pressure from woke activists. To woke activists anything Western
or anything that is not approved by them is illegitimate. They seek to use
freedom of expression to highlight their demands yet refuse the same to their
opponents. It would be interesting to see what the reactions would be in case
someone refuses to join the protest. It would not be surprising if the athlete
would be ostracized and in fact the pressure on other athletes to disassociate
with him or her would be high. There would be realms of op-eds written and
impute racist motives. It would also be interesting to see if any athlete would
seek to protest against the treatment of minorities in China. It might be
possible that given the Chinese power, this is unlikely to be thought of.
Hardly any athlete for all their grandstanding is likely to miss the next year’s
Winter Olympics in China. The political grandstanding has its uses in a
democracy and Japan being one, it might be open to the expression of dissent. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, the Olympics or for that
matter any sporting event must remain out of bounds to woke agenda that is
sought to be imposed. It is about political correctness rather than any commitment
to a cause. The racism is evident and there are enough grounds to protest but
the agenda and movers behind the protests have ulterior motives. They can make
the most noise thus a narrative would be seen as something being favored by the
masses. The athletes would perhaps be under pressure to support else risk an extremely
bad PR that might virtually career threatening. This is in fact the real agenda
of woke activists seeking to instigate athletes to protest. The Olympics are
sacred and have built in their own sanctity. They have been powerful tools in
enhancing human rights though they have often fallen prey to the political
agenda. The instances of Olympics 1980 and 1984 come to the mind. There are
many instances when Olympic selection or choice of Olympic flag bearers have
pointed towards political symbolism. An instance would be of US choosing a
Georgian born archer to carry the flag at the closing ceremony in 2008 in a
message to Russian invasion, albeit proxy of Georgia. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is no doubt that there exists
an individual right to protest and have their freedom of expression. The individuals
or group of individuals have a right to express their views in the manner they
deem to be fit. Yet there exists a larger framework of using a sports platform
to score political points. It is bad of the establishment to use sports for
political motives and it’s equally wrong to use sports platforms to make one’s
points that essentially arose in a political context. The Olympics should be
kept away from these protests that have little to do with injustices perceived or
real but everything do with an agenda of woke liberal community. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; text-transform: uppercase;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-10931117779852614302021-06-28T20:20:00.006+05:302021-06-28T20:20:52.910+05:30Tourism Industry in the Times of Pandemic<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The pandemic induced by the Chinese virus
has taken a toll on the economies across the world without exception.
Industries are affected in terms of their productivity one due to lockdowns and
thus restriction on production as also on demand and secondly due to the
employees testing positive for the Chinese virus thus absenting themselves from
work and perhaps affecting the co-workers in the process becoming
superspreaders. The economies have witnessed recession across board and it is
only now that some economies are turning the corner. It is however very early
days to be optimistic of a full recovery in the current financial year. India
was on the verge of a turnaround before the second wave hit in full fury
resulting in lockdowns across states. Though the lockdowns varied in intensity
and perhaps was not as strict as it was in the first lockdown, the impact on productivity
would have to be gauged as the data comes in for the first quarter of the
financial year 2021-22. Rather than production being restricted, it was the
employees who were testing positive and the sheer number of positives and the
resultant deaths that would have impacted more the productive side of the
economy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Among the sectors that has been
affected through the last year and half has been without doubt tourism. The sector
is one which is a high contact sector and naturally would be impacted. Furthermore,
there was high degree of probability of being a superspreader industry thus the
impact being even more pronounced. Yet, there were times when people did visit
tourist places mainly to unburden themselves of the tensions the waves create. During
the winter there was an increased rush into different tourist places ranging
from Jammu and Kashmir to Himachal Pradesh to Goa to many other places. It is believed
that the upturn in the COVID-19 cases in HP during November and December was primarily
due to people from Delhi visiting these places and thus spreading the disease
there. The second wave in Goa could largely be attributed to the influx of tourists
to the state. One has to view the cases in Kerala too through the prism of
tourist inflow in part. As the second wave is receding, the tourist inflows are
increasing. The dangers of some turning into superspreader events are very
high. There were videos from Maharashtra showing the tourists in full flow in
trekking some of the forts of the Maratha era in the Western Ghats closer to
Mumbai and Pune. There is every chance of Delhi tourists flocking Uttarakhand
or Himachal or even Kashmir creating a potential waves there.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">Yet while one exasperates on the
people behavior which might be the cause of the future wave, the tourism industry
too has to survive. The spillovers of the industry are significant and has been
affected resulting in a loss of significant quantum of jobs in the sector both
directly and indirectly. The industry does not seem to see any respite until
the vaccinations reach a critical mass. The Western countries are slowly
opening up for travel though the disruption from the next wave continues to
remain highly probabilistic. Yet the data from UK and Israel seem to suggest
vaccinations are working the next wave would perhaps be diminished if the
vaccination process speeds up. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">In this context, the Central
Government has announced certain incentives for the tourism sector. The incentives
could have been oriented either towards supply or demand or a combination of
both. The current incentives seem to be demand oriented. While there are
measures like concession loans for both tourist agencies and guides,
apparently, the supply side incentives are being left in good measure to be
offered by the States. The centre has now announced that the first 500000
visitors to India post resumption of international travel would not be charged
the fees for visa. The visa fees is now essentially zero for the scheme that is
likely to run till March 31 2022. This definitely an incentive for visitors
from abroad to come to India. It remains to be seen how the response would
emerge. It depends on the visa fees that foreigner pays when they visit India
for tourism purpose. This is unlikely to impact the business visitors. The business
side of hospitality had to transform itself into offering quarantine services
thus a semblance of revenue flow continued to exist. This was not something
that was possible for the vacation tourism industry. Therefore, they needed
some sops which seem to have been announced now. Prima facie, the announcement is
welcome though it is a postdated cheque if one might call it so. Yet it could
instill a certain morale in the tourism sector across vacation spots. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The conditions would be many in the
sense the extraneous factors would come into play. The opening up of
international travel sector would be contingent on the controlling the corona
problem in India. This would have to be preceded by a sort of existence of
normalcy in the countries abroad. In other words, both countries the
originating and the destination have to be corona free relatively speaking at
least for the travel to resume. They must be countries which do see lot of
outward travel towards India. There must exist a willingness to travel abroad for
tourism. This is contingent on the incomes in those countries. Given the fact,
many have lost jobs or have their incomes reduced, it would be moot to view how
many would prefer to visit. At the same time, there does exist a situation
where people would prefer to chill out given the trauma they would have
undergone over the last year and half. Thus there would be an audience which
would be willing and perhaps has the ability to afford the trip to India. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;">The tourism incentives are
essentially contingent on the swiftness with which the world is likely to come
out of the pandemic. The longer the pandemic sustains, the international travel
is unlikely to open up in significant measure. In this context, the tourist
inflows might be less relative to expectations. The concessional rate at which
loans are being offered would make sense only if there is an expectation of
upturn in business in the short run. This is subject to the Indian control of
the pandemic. The incentives are good. The tourism when it resumes will take
off significantly. Yet this incentive has been offered in the times of uncertainty
which would perhaps be a dampener. The intention is good, the effect will be
positive yet subject to the all-round uncertainty associated with the pandemic.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-27167819702722704082021-06-27T19:41:00.003+05:302021-06-27T19:41:50.150+05:30Judicial Interventions in Hindu Cultural Matters : A Note<p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">In India, the judiciary in theory can
be a dictator with very little options existing to question its choice. It can
turn itself into an institution without accountability at the whiff of the hat.
It per se exists in current boundaries only due to its own restraint and this
is by its own admission at different points of time. With passage of and more
so in recent years, the court has turned a law into itself exercising
jurisdiction on things all and sundry. It seems to have an opinion on
everything under the sun. Often it functions to the gallery rather than
application of judicial principles on matters of law. It has taken refuge on
the grounds that it fills the vacuum when the executives abandons its role. The
fact of the matter however is often it seeks to encroach into executive powers on
the grounds of inefficiency of executive in implementing what can be termed as
pro-people decisions. In exercising power under the garb of protecting welfare
of the people from the hands of allegedly inefficient executive, it has run
riot on many occasions, the implications of which might be felt for a long time
to come. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">There has been intervention in many
spheres across the polity and social spheres in the country. Many posts in the
past have highlighted the movement towards what is termed as judicial
dictatorship. The interventions have been more acute on the front of the
cultural sphere. The courts have been proactive in cracking down on what are
perceived as essential cultural practices of the Hindus. They have been more than
strident in seeking to demonstrate the modernist credentials or perhaps woke
credentials. The post-independent India was seen to be moving towards a modern approach.
It was felt that the past was hindering India’s progress. In other words, India’s
problems arose from its being a prisoner of the past. Therefore, there appeared
a need to be breaking away from these retrogressive cultural practices often
alleged to be a barrier in India’s movement towards the modern and scientific
approach. In fact, the fundamental duties brought into the constitution in the
Emergency highlights the need for inculcating scientific temper. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The argument was India was steeped
in blind faith and superstitions. In the US and Europe, the traditional
Christian practices remained untouched. While the state was supposed to be
secular, the realm of the personal might be religious. Though there were practices
that might be termed arising of blind faith or superstitions, such practices were
not touched. In fact, in the US there evolved the principle of sincerely held
beliefs or the doctrine of ministerial exception. If that were to be applied in
India, for instance, the Sabarimala issue or Travancore vault opening issue or
Shani Shingapur issue would all be outside the domain of the courts. In the US
and Europe the courts adhere to the principles and stay away from these matters
of personal faith. Yet in India, the courts in the garb of modernity or at
least seeking to gain brownie points from woke gallery have sought to encroach upon
these practices linking them to the propriety of constitutional principles. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The underlying logic is India cannot
be seen to be practicing things of faith that perhaps were suitable centuries
ago but have no place in the scientific society that India currently seems to
profess. It is a trick drawn of Marxist toolkit if one might call it. At the
second level, it is also about using judiciary to attack institutions of Hindu
faith. The issues of attack arise on the grounds of secular principles or
narratives that are little to be disputed. One instance is about prevention of
animal cruelty. This is an issue that might find resonance among large section
of society. The narrative of prevention of animal cruelty is used to attack
traditional practices like jallikattu or kambala. These practices are
reflections of the diverse cultural milieu that the Indian rural landscape has
offered and sustained for centuries. They are intrinsically linked to
agricultural activities prevailing in the landscape. Attack on these
institution would deprive the people of their linkage with the culture they
have grown up with. As the deracinated society takes shape, it is easier to
break the religious practices and seek to convert them into the religions of
the Abrahamic mound. The second instance is something that was of cracker ban
under the guise of prevention of pollution. This too was relatively low hanging
fruit since there is near consensus on pollution being bad and availability
heuristic suggesting crackers to be the core of it. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;">The point whether to ban these
practices or otherwise are purely the domain of the executive. The judiciary,
it must be reiterated has no role in these. For instance, the judiciary was
very active in clamping down on dahi-handi practice in Mumbai on the grounds of
safety. The practice might or might not be safe but judiciary cannot set the policy.
The practice of dahi-handi being allowed or no lies in the domain of the state
executive or the local body. They can determine whether it violates any law or
otherwise. For good or bad, they can seek to bring the law that might legitimize
or make it illegal. Yet that is the domain of the executive or the legislature.
The judiciary can only judge on the grounds whether the practice is violating
any existing legislation. If it is not, irrespective of the grounds, the
judiciary cannot intervene and seek to what it believes in setting right the
alleged irregularities on the grounds of safety or otherwise. If there is no
violation of existing law, it has to uphold it. It can adjudicate on the
legislation itself but the grounds are limited to competency of the authority
to frame such a legislation or whether the legislation violates the fundamental
rights or is ultra vires of the constitution. On no other grounds, it can
intervene. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>One might not ascribe ulterior
motives to the judiciary in terms of its judgment denigrating the Hindu
practices. Yet the very fact the ways judgments emerge manifest a suspicion of
the same. The courts must confine themselves to the contours that have been
laid down for them. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-65190705724127639932021-06-26T19:30:00.004+05:302021-06-26T19:30:36.458+05:30An Economics Approach to Thinking: A Note<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As mentioned many a time before in
the past posts, economics is not something narrow in the sense that it is
restricted to demand and supply. It is an erroneous assumption that economics
is about matching demand and supply. There is no doubt economics over the last
125 years or so has moved to demand based analysis and this virtually meant the
demand curve becoming critical to the analysis. Yet, it would be only part of
the answer as the demand is correlated to the supply. Therefore, to many, in
common sense it became easier to associate economics with demand and supply. As
they say in branding, perception is more important than the truth. Therefore,
in the context of economics too, the perception often overrides the truth. Economics
is far more than demand and supply. It is about understanding of interactions
of individuals in producing the aggregate outcomes. This was something was the
nicely summarized by Thomas Schelling as micromotives leading macrobehavior. There
is an economic naturalist as Robert Frank would put it, inherent in every
behavior and the outcome of that behavior. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Behavioral economics is about the
exercise of individual choices and the deviations from the rationality in
framing and execution of choices. It is about the cognitive constraints that
emerge as barriers in decision making thus deviations from the assumptions of
perfect rationality as viewed by traditional economics. Yet, it is not about
perfect rationality but the contextual rationality or as Herbert Simon would
put it the bounded rationality. Each economic agent would seek to analyze the
costs and benefits associated with the decision making but the analysis as also
the outcomes are not unbounded. In fact they are bounded by cognitive
constraints that becomes the fundamental to the behavioral school argument of
economic rationality being wrong. Rather than being wrong it is more prudent to
suggest, the rationality is more subject to limitations rather than pure
unbounded theoretical outcome. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">One would look economics as a means
of thinking. It is an approach to seeking solutions to problems. With every
problem, there exists a solution and there is ever continued quest of seeking
solutions. Economics provides an approach towards seeking these solutions. It is
the thinking that drives the agents towards these solutions. The solutions are
sought to be analyzed through the framework of economic tools. In this sense,
economics is a diagnostics toolkit. To a successful doctor, it is the ability
to diagnose that makes the difference. Similarly to an economist, it is ability
to diagnose a social or an economic problem that makes the critical difference
in suggesting the solutions. Therefore, it is the right toolkit that has to be
applied in solving the challenges at hand and this is where economics comes in
handy. Often, the solutions are thought of subconsciously yet when there is a
post mortem, one seemingly detects an invisible hand of economics. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Adam Smith might have talked about
invisible hand in terms of enhanced social and economic welfare but the hidden
hand of economics is something ostensibly intrinsic in every design. Rather than
a design of God as intellectual design school would want us to believe, it
might be that there is economic design that rules the behavior and outcomes of
those behavior. Economics unlike other social sciences perhaps, provides a set
of diagnostic tools that facilitate deciphering the outcomes. It is about
however applying the right diagnostic tool kit. Economic artistry is about specializing
in the same. It is about seeking the right answers to the problems under
consideration. There is perhaps a gift of garb in a few than enable them to
master this. The economic artists are someone who would look at the problem
very differently through the highly diversified toolkit lens of economics. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">This approach has made possible
economics invade virtually every social science discipline. In fact, psychology
rather than seeking to encroach into economics something which behavioral
school would do has seen enough of economics encroaching its territory. Incidentally,
while there are economists who seek to diversify into sociological or
anthropological thinking, the two streams themselves have become strongly ‘economicised’
in the sense many economic approaches are used to understand the sociological
or anthropological problems. Many economists have moved into conquest of
sociology and would soon perhaps surround anthropology. Political science is
virtually a subset of economics these days. Yet there are many economists who believe
concepts like power are not easily malleable to the economic toolkits being
applied. Yet, there has been considerable application of economic thoughts into
political science thus contributing to its richness and diversity. History
often was considered isolated from the rest of social sciences in some ways. In
recent times, there has increasing adoption of economic tools into
understanding historical events. It might be more pertinent to view
understanding history through economic lens is about post mortem analysis of
history something to be used in forecasting the future. While there are
numerous critics of economists getting involved in policy, yet it undeniable
fact that policy would be unthinkable for good or bad without inputs from the
economists. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Law to good extent is foundational
on the principles of economics though the acknowledgment is not visible enough.
There are jurists who have used economics to build legal models. Economics has
also been used by quite a few to model criminal behavior and thus intruding
into the decoding of criminology. Economic philosophy has strong roots in the
traditional economic schools. Minus of philosophy, economics would be poorer
just that the same could be said of the reverse. As one peruses economic
studies, it proves the phenomenon is not isolated nor something to be treated in
silos. It needs a diversified treatment involving inputs from several fields. Yet,
while this happens, economics too can offer explanations in differing ways of
the problems that the other social science fields encounters. Thus as observed
in this column, the dominance of economic thinking on the domains of other
social sciences is more robust and stronger than the counterfoil. Therefore, it
would be no surprise to see economists presenting themselves across the fields
rather than the other way round. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-74108574076335153192021-06-23T20:22:00.004+05:302021-06-23T20:22:40.793+05:30India's Hopes in Tokyo Olympics <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">June 22 is marked as the Olympic day
and 30 days remain for the start of the delayed Tokyo Olympics. It is for the
first time, the Olympics are happening in a odd year and under much
uncertainty. There has been opposition within Japan to hosting the Olympics
given the circumstances. Japan has just lifted the state of Emergency imposed
in the wake of the spike in the cases of Chinese virus. The torch relay has to
face multiple barriers. A number of volunteers have withdrawn from the contest.
There have been different rules framed for different athletes from different
countries. There has been opposition in India over the ill-treatment being
meted to Indian athletes in terms of severity in quarantine imposition and
interaction with other athletes. It would be mammoth task for them to carry out
the Olympics with more than 10000 athletes and perhaps the double the number of
officials. There has been ban on foreign spectators which has invited a severe
backlash more so because of non-refundable tickets. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the context of the games and the
Olympic day, it would be interesting to take a look at India’s prospects in the
games. At the outset it must be said, there would be uncertainty and thus would
be difficult to predict the movement of results. It would be wrong perhaps to
expect a targeted set of medals. Many countries are scaling back their
expectations and are not setting any targeted medals. Yet one can broadly analyze
the prospects of Indian athletes in the best case scenario. India will be
sending around 110 athletes something similar to last time in Rio. The athletes
would be competing in a host of sports and there is an increase in the number
of sports India is participating. India is participating in fencing for the
first time while it participating in equestrian after a gap of twenty years.
India is sending a larger contingent of four sailors in three events in
sailing, perhaps for the first time India is participating in more than one
event in the sport. India has also confirmed an entry in Judo, a sport where
India participates regularly but has not made any impact over the years. There is
also a gymnast in the field but little can be expected of her unlike last time.
The same result might be expected in the lone rowing entry. It would be
difficult to expect any medals or even top ten finish in these sports barring a
miracle. Yet, the very fact, India is going to participate in these sports
would itself be some glory.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">India might not expect much in table
tennis but the players are likely to pull off an upset or two. It was
disappointing to see them not qualifying in the team events, something which
was expected from women’s archery team which faltered in the qualifiers. Archery
does create expectations but invariably lead to disappointment. One hopes there
would be a better performance in the sport. Lawn tennis is showing some decline
with only the women’s doubles getting an entry thanks to the protected ranking
system. There is an entry in the weightlifting and given her ranking, there is
an expectation for a medal in the sport after 20 years. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Indian athletes are ready to
participate in the track and field and a number of athletes are likely to
qualify. Yet barring javelin throw, there is hardly any chance of a medal in
the sport. However some good performances including qualification for the
finals are likely to be expected. There is no improvement in swimming with
India again choosing to field universality places. The sport certainly needs
some push up in the coming years. There are a couple of golfers but unlikely to
create any dent though there did create some interest in Rio. India’s hopes
will continue in badminton and are likely to gain a medal or so. It would be
disappointment if India fails to get a medal in the sport. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">India’s chances in wrestling are
certainly bright with at least four wrestlers being seeded. They should give
India a couple of medals in continuation of the past three games. Indian hopes
would also rest high on boxing where there is a strong contingent. It should be
a surprise if India fails to perform to expectations in the sport. Shooting is
one sport where India has been dominant in recent times and should continue to
assert its dominance. It came a damp squib at Rio to find India without medals
in shooting. India should be targeting in excess of five shooting medals if
everything goes well in Tokyo. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">This brings us to the eternal hope
in field hockey. India has been doing well in recent times. India should reach
the quarter finals comfortably in the men’s section and a victory there should
put on the throes of the medal. The women have done well to qualify for the
second time in a row but little can be expected given the current form. They would
do well if they reach the quarter finals. India has historically underperformed
at the international stage in sports. India has perhaps talent but execution
has always been below expectations. Indians are not able to cope with the
global competition. There would expectations but many a time they turn out be
unrealistic with often a poor reality check. India, if has to demonstrate its
superpower credentials has to demonstrate its prowess in sports too. India has
ignored the reality for a long time. For a population of India’s size, it would
be hardly justice if India doesn’t stand top in sports. Tokyo Olympics is
happening at a time when the world is grappling with the virus emerging from
China. There are huge odds to beat not just the virus or the athletes but even
the protocols and the norms that are sought to be imposed in Tokyo. Indian
athletes have done a lot of hard work in qualifying for the Olympics. There have
been few disappointments in qualification but nevertheless the time is to look
forward and hope India turns the corner in its quest for sporting supremacy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-6080677242027226082021-06-22T20:05:00.000+05:302021-06-22T20:05:04.176+05:30Indian Vaccination: What Next?<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The second wave of the Chinese virus
seem to be abating. India has recorded a daily positivity rate of under five
percent over the last two weeks. The World Health Organization (WHO) points to
this rate as the minimum eligibility for the economy to be unlocked. The unlocking
process has begun in varying degrees. In the lockdown of 2020, the posts had
repeatedly suggested of adopting a calibrated unlocking district by district
based on the positivity rate. The idea had generally found low receptivity. There
were arguments that the economy cannot function in an isolated environment and
it had to be either opened fully or locked fully. Yet those same people who
were so vociferously opposing it last year are now in the forefront of welcoming
especially the strategy being adopted in Uttar Pradesh. Conceding the Rusi
Karanjia theory of consistency being the virtue of donkeys, it might be seen as
vindication of those critics of district wise unlocking are now slowly moving
away from being donkeys metaphorically speaking. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">A number of districts still continue
to have a positivity rate in excess of five percent especially when measured
through the seven day moving average method. This implies that the pandemic is
still active. There are figures which do indicate a spike in active cases in
states like Maharashtra or Kerala on some of the days. Some other states like
Karnataka or Assam have plateaued in terms of daily cases dropping down or in
terms of positivity rate. There is a day or two every week where positivity
rate does increase in states like Karnataka. The obvious implication is there
are no grounds for complacency to set in something that happened last time. In fact,
a good number of cases were essentially driven by the complacency that set in
and made people shed masks and social distancing. In a heavily populated
country like India, it is difficult to maintain social distancing throughout
and hence it must be emphasized more on masking. There are grounds to suggest
double masking as one way to counter the effects of lack of social distancing
in workplaces, markets or public transport. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">On the vaccine front, India has
finally picked up the pace. On June 21, India recorded the vaccinations in
excess of eighty lakhs. This was the highest single day vaccination across the
world if one were to ignore China or at least take the Chinese with some pinch
of salt. Yet, as has been mentioned before too, the vaccine policy is akin to
maintaining a very high run rate over long period of time. To reiterate, it is
easier to score at ten an over in T20 but almost impossible to do the same even
for single day in test cricket. The challenge before India is to score at T20
rates in a test match that might not just end in five days but might extended
to even twenty days. It is about the vaccines keeping pace with the virus and
its mutants. In this context, there is no doubt, that the vaccination of eighty
lakh people on a single day is commendable. There has been a coordinated effort
across all agencies. They deserve accolades but the journey is just beginning. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The question that arises would be
the obvious course of the government action in the coming months. The prescription
would remain the same as it was earlier. There has to be sustained momentum in
carrying out the vaccinations. Moreover, it has to be ensuring the vaccine
hesitancy is overcome. Those who are desirous of getting vaccinated are already
vaccinated or in the queue are likely to be vaccinated in the next month or so.
The numbers are likely to be in the range of around fifty crores. But this
would be less than half of India’s population. If one looks at eligible
population it would be around two thirds. The importance would be to drive the
vaccine programme into the remote areas and bring into the vaccination fold
those under eighteen years of age. Trials must be expedited on this. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Secondly, there has to be no change
on increasing the vaccine availability. India still is betting on the two
vaccines it has in its possession currently. The other vaccines are in the
pipeline and there would be no doubt uncertainty on them. There was a sort of
marked rush in securing vaccines from abroad at the height of the second wave
but not the urgency does not seem to exist. It would be mistake to ignore the
possibility of the third wave. The vaccination must sustain at a very high pace
and therefore there needs to be expanded the basket of vaccines. The government
cannot be complacent of securing those supplies and the supply chain. Betting
on future vaccines might sound lucrative but would be the same a bird in a bush.
While there is no doubt, a quantum of geopolitics is involved, yet the market
is skewed in favor of the vaccine manufacturers at this moment. Therefore the government
has to get them on board and create conditions where vaccines are available on
demand. India’s problem is its high population in this context. Therefore, the
amount of vaccines needed and the basket of vaccines needed is both high. The government
seems to be again making a mistake of feeling that vaccinating some percentage
of population would make the virus go away. As evidence is demonstrating, the
virus is likely to persist strongly till at least eighty percent are
vaccinated. There is some ray of hope emerging from Britain where hospitalizations
have not increased while deaths have remained low in the wake of the new spread
of delta variant. Israel would have to be observed over the next few weeks for
the same.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The steps should be clear in seeking
to procure vaccines from all possible sources. As mentioned in the previous
posts, the government must offer incentives sufficient enough for the vaccine
majors to shift production base to India. Rather than focus on PLIs on numerous
industries, it would have been better to focus the same on vaccines. The mission
to make vaccines in India irrespective of the company should have begun well
early last year when the pandemic was in infantile stages. It is still delayed
but enough potential exists if India has to make its mark in ‘Vaccine Maitri’
once again. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-87139051949467719512021-06-21T20:01:00.002+05:302021-06-21T20:01:32.531+05:30Political Factional Fights <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Over the last month or so while the
cases of the Chinese virus show small signs of abatement, factionalism has
reared its head across political parties across the states. The Congress is
facing challenges to its Chief Ministers in Punjab and Rajasthan. In Punjab,
there are multiple factions that are clamoring for replacement for existing
Chief Minster Capt. Amrinder Singh. In Rajasthan, Sachin Pilot group is
queering the pitch for the Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot. Meanwhile Gehlot is demonstrating
counter show of strength. There are reports of factional fighting in Jharkhand
and Karnataka. BJP too is not immune from these fights. From Bengal where they
are facing murmurs of dissent partly due to state pressure, they are
experiencing factional troubles in different states. They replaced Chief
Minister in Uttarakhand, there were reports of fights in Uttar Pradesh.
Karnataka is no stranger to factional fights in the BJP and currently
witnessing one more round of such infighting. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The factional fights per se are not
unusual. In the West, political parties often are umbrella or a banyan tree for
various shades of opinion to co-exist. India had one such banyan tree in the
Congress pre-1947. Even after 1947, for a fairly long period Congress continued
to be a party that accommodated various shades of grey. Over a period of time,
the ideology gave way to personal loyalties. BJP has been ideologically
coherent and has accommodated personalities who subscribed to different shades
of the same ideology. There are people who are in favor of extreme degree of
Hindutva while there were and are quite a few who subscribe to moderate
Hindutva. In fact, it was the tensions between these two groups, and the fact
BJP’s choice of falling between two stools led to the disastrous decade of
2004-2014. The Janata Parivar too was itself in its various forms in the 1970s
and 1980s till perhaps the late 1990s was a conglomerate of various factions
generally rooted in state and caste coexisting for the benefits of economies of
agglomeration. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The barriers of entry and exit were
relatively smooth till the Anti-Defection law came into existence. Parties
could be formed and split easily which became difficult. After the 2002
amendment, it has become virtually difficult to split parties. Moreover, many
regional formations have developed their independent identities and thus
unlikely to surrender the same when the return to the original form becomes
very difficult once the surrender happens. Therefore, factionalism is relatively
lower in regional parties all of which are dominated by personalities. The leadership
is undisputed and to those disagree it is either accept the reality or leave
the party. The same does not hold good in varying terms in the national parties.
For varying reasons, there would be many people accommodated in various
positions and at least at the state level would have ambitions at seeking top
positions. In the Congress, the central leadership is relatively settled
barring a split, something that cannot be ruled out in the current context. BJP
is seeing a settled question at this moment. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In the state unit, when the
factional fights emerge, there is a possibility of cracking down if there
exists a strong central leadership. A central leadership often emerges to
mediate and formulate a compromise. At times it might result in replacement of
Chief Minister, some other occasions it might result in ministerial reshuffles
or expansions, there would be reshuffles within the organization on some other occasions
while there would be stick in full flow on certain occasions. In the current
environment, these might work in the states where BJP is in power. Yet, in
states where Congress is in power, there would be difficulties in formulating
compromises without being damaged politically in the process. To the BJP with a
strong central leadership, the dissidents might be kept on a leash. Yet to the
Congress leadership which itself is struggling with discontents it would be
very difficult to resolve the issues at the state level. For instance in
Punjab, the Capt. Amrinder seems powerful and is no mood to accommodate the
dissidents. The dissidents are determined to have their way irrespective of the
long term damage. The leadership which is relatively weaker would find it
difficult to resolve the issue and perhaps at the end would result in the party
getting split. It then becomes what game theorists would call minimax strategy.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The same fate awaits in Rajasthan.
Ashok Gehlot over a period of time has become more powerful and isolation of
Pilot is complete. At this moment, it is unlikely that any change would be
acceptable to Gehlot. He would be determined to finish the challenge of Pilot
once for all. The other states are witnessing the discontents encouraged by the
helplessness of the High Command in these two states. The issues in states like
Karnataka might get resolved but for the weakness of the High Command. To add
to the woes is the fact that Congress is extremely weak and hardly in a position
to challenge Modi in 2024. It is more likely that a non-Congress front might
challenge Modi more effectively than the Nehru-Gandhi family. To many of the
party leaders at the state level, it would be an indication of the prospects of
their own future. Sachin Pilot would more likely think of defection if not
getting adequately recognized by his party. The same would hold good for many
leaders in Punjab who might look to Akalis or AAP. In fact at some level, the rise
of farmer protest can be viewed as Capt. Amrinder’s agenda of preemptively
preventing the BJP from gaining the foothold in the state and closing the
options to the dissidents. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Factionalism is inherent to politics
and political parties. There would be multiple power centres at various levels
and they would seek in upstaging the other. The motivations of factional
leaders would be very different from the high command and the motivations of
the workers would be different from the faction leaders. There would dichotomy in
the conflict and thus there would exist agency costs. It would be erroneous to
view factional fights from the perspective of splits but they do have a
potential for damaging at least one election cycle if there were no remedial
interventions. In fact, that damage to one electoral cycle is what the
dissidents too want without exception. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-80845772176531396262021-06-20T20:13:00.004+05:302021-06-20T20:13:51.768+05:30The Rationality of Medieval Punishment Practices <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It has been stated many times that
economics is about behavior. Demand and supply are mere manifestations.
Economics is concerned with how people take decisions under various
circumstances. There is a positing about rationality in decision making. Economics
assumes agents are rational when they make decisions. Implied is the agents are
well aware of the cost benefit analysis when they exercise those choices. While
the exercise of choices might seem irrational or weird to the observers, yet to
the agents, there exists a certain calculations that would have gone into their
choice. The behavioral economics contests this proposition, yet it is more
about decisions under cognitive constraints or informational constraints. It is
about boundaries to the rationality in terms of decision making. Therefore,
behavioral economics talks about bounded rationality. Yet within these
boundaries, there does exist a cost benefit analysis towards execution of preferences.
Not evaluating every possible choice is not irrationality but execution of
rational decision under certain constraints. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As one studies rationality, it would
be natural to seek decoding the rationality in decisions of the past. It would
beg to be wondered whether certain decisions could have changed the course of
history. In the context it might seem the decisions were perhaps inexplicable
but a deeper examination might actually suggest the decisions to be rational in
the circumstances being faced by the economic agents. The discussion on
rationality comes back to the mind when one listens to a podcast with Peter
Leeson on Freakonomics. The podcast is available <a href="https://t.co/4xmsGAxtoX?amp=1">here</a>. The discussion with Steven
Levitt covers quite a few aspects but one interesting thing that gets discussed
is examination of historical events that have been considered barbaric in
modern times through the prism of economics. The discussion is naturally about
the medieval and pre-medieval trials which seem to use harsh methods to extract
confessions. Many methods seem to be faith based rather than based on what we
call modern logic or secular and sound principles of legal justice. There
apparently was little focus on burden of proof but rather seeking to place
faith in supposed hand of God in delivering innocence or otherwise. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The medieval trials were notorious for
their cruelty. They had a hot water test and cold water test. The accused were
asked to dip their hand in hot water and pick up some object like a stone or a
ring that would have been thrown into the water before boiling. If the hand of
the accused doesn’t get burnt it would be indicative of a divine intervention
and thus they would be set free. In the cold water test, the accused would be
thrown into the cold water with their hands being tied. If they do not drown,
it was indicative of their innocence. These trials were generally applied only to
Christians and to other religions like Jews or Pagans, there were other
methods. This in itself would indicate there was certain sense of psychology
that was involved in application of the test. To the Christians who were devout
believers, they would seek to undergo the test to prove their innocence. Their belief
would rest on God saving them. This might not have been applicable to the
believers of other religions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The priest was the one entrusted
with boiling the water. The accused would be in a private session with the
priest for quite a long time till the water was boiled. It might have been
deals being struck in the private, the outcome of which might be the water
might not have been boiled to the extent it would burn hands. Therefore, the
priests who were supposed to be representatives of God had tremendous role to
play. Yet there was game theoretic view that was supposedly at play. It is
about the strategic or at least tactical value of private information. The accused
would know<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whether he or she had
committed a crime or not. If they knew they had committed a crime, they would
in all probability believe that their hands would be burnt and thus have an
incentive to confess beforehand perhaps in the hope of receiving less
punishment. Secondly even if the accused were to take advantage and get away
with it, the fact, a serial criminal would have to come back numerous occasions
would be sufficient disincentive for them to try their luck. The priests too
would know if someone kept coming back, the probability of them committing a
crime would be higher. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In fact, the data as discussed on
the podcast indicates something towards this. The researchers in the podcast seem
to have dug out some data from Hungary. Of the 300 odd cases, apparently,
around 100 seem to have confessed before going through the trial. Around two
thirds of those who did go through the trial, they came out innocent. It is
apparent, those who were staunch believers and who knew they had committed a
crime would seek to confess rather than go through the trial. To the others, it
might have been there would be a deal between the priest and the accused or
alternatively, the priests would have gauged their innocence through psychology
and prepared the water less hot. This actually demonstrates, the medieval trials
were perhaps not barbaric in practice though they appeared so in theory. There cannot
be a value judgment on the same at this stage but one has to glance through
economics or psychology to unearth the reasons behind these practices. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It appears so that the practices had
a sense of rationality despite the alleged barbarism. It rested on a
fundamental economic foundations of information asymmetry. In the presence of
information asymmetry, there has to be devised a mechanism for self-revealing. It
is about designing a separating equilibrium. It is about criminals revealing
through self-selection. To this extent they had to design the practices that
seem to bring the psychology of the people. In an era of staunch beliefs and
pre-modern science days, it appeared these tricks would work most of the times.
There would higher degree of errors but that would be neutralized by
confessions too. Therefore, when one examines carefully and beneath the radar,
these practices had a sense of rationality to them. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-75648648402732464672021-06-18T16:26:00.003+05:302021-06-18T16:26:55.006+05:30US Interventions in Foreign Countries <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Russia has been accused of
interfering with the US elections and engineering cyber-attacks on the US
systems. This was pronounced in terms of alleged Russian interference to turn
the mandate in favor of Donald Trump in 2016. There were constant accusations
within the US, within its intelligence community, its administration, security
apparatus, the Congress about the extent of Russian role and the internal
saboteurs who seemed to have helped Russia for their own ends. The US has been
obsessed with Soviet Union and later Russia since the Second World War. Its relationship
with China was primarily a function of containing the Soviet Union after their
famous split of 1968. In their pursuit to contain the Russian influence, they
turned a blind eye to Chinese expansionism. In the current geopolitical terrain,
Russia is fast emerging as a Chinese vassal rather than an independent
superpower it once used to boast of. Yet rather than seeking to co-opt Russia in
the larger battles against China, US has continued to remain obsessed with the
Cold War thinking. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thus, there were no surprises when
the meeting between President Biden and President Putin in Geneva, their first
produced greater tensions rather than heartwarming gestures. Maybe it is do
with the Democrats unable to come to terms with their defeat in 2016 but the
influence on the foreign policy might prove counterproductive. News reports
suggest that President Biden being quoted as stating the impact of alleged
Russian interference in the US was similar to if US were to have intervened in
various degrees in different countries. There are numerous rumors with some
evidence that President Biden suffers from memory issues. This statement
perhaps stands as a testimony to the same. One does not know if it had to do
with memory lapses to President Biden or was it a naïve statement or perhaps it
was made in sincere intention but the very fact that statement was made
reflects the death of irony, if there were to exist one. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The US perhaps has a history of
interventions unprecedented in human history. Rarely has a country intervened
to such an extent as US has done not just in the Cold War but through its
existence. There are no doubt instances where US refused to intervene something
Biden seems to imply. The one instance that could be cited is the genocide in
East Pakistan in 1970-71 where it backed the occupational West Pakistani
forces. The fact that US refuses to recognize the genocide illustrates a dark
chapter in its history. US historically did not intervene outside the American
continent barring exceptions until the Second World War. It did intervene in
World War I but went back into isolation as manifested in its decision to keep
away from the League of Nations. It had its Munroe Doctrine where it refused to
allow other players to intervene in its backyard the American continent. For all
that Biden poses, the list of US interventions are endless. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There was the invasion of Grenada in
1983 and the invasion of Panama in 1989. There was active backing to the
militias in Nicaragua as in Honduras. The CIA involvement to assist United
Fruit Company to depose the rulers in Guatemala is well known. US has intervened
often in Ecuador as also in Bolivia something reflected in removal of Evo
Morales. It’s orchestration of the coup in Chile to overthrow Allende is
something that is defined as the bottom point at least to the critics of the US
policy. In 1963, there was the infamous Bay of Pigs invasion. In response to challenge
from Castro who had overthrown the US backed Batista regime, US sent half trained
forces to invade Cuba through marine landings at Bay of pigs where they
suffered a humiliating retreat. US backed coups were very common through the
American continent south of the US. There perhaps exists hardly any country in
the Latin American belt that has not suffered the US intervention directly or otherwise.
It might be Argentina or Uruguay or Colombia or any other Latin American
country that has not seen US backed regimes overthrowing some or other regime.
US has historically not intervened in Africa but their implicit backing for
certain regimes is evident. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There allegedly exists an US hand in
Indonesia when Suharto overthrew Sukarno. There have been US interventions in
the Philippines but the one which is conceivably most shameful was in Vietnam. In
response to the alleged danger of Communist spread in South East Asia, US sent
its troops which waged a battle for nearly ten years before having to withdraw
in humiliating circumstances. It was by far the worst US defeat in recent history.
The only other country that seemed to see an US defeat is Afghanistan as US
prepare to pull out its troops from the country. Not too long ago, US had
invaded Iraq ostensibly on the grounds of producing weapons of mass destruction
evidence of which sketchy at best. In India, through the decades after
independence at least till the late 1990s, it was common to accuse CIA of
having a hand in some or the other incident in India. The famous CIA hand was
used by Indira Gandhi to strike back at the opposition and in fact arresting
them during Emergency. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Thus the US interventions or
non-interventions have been the function of the nature of the regime or the
nature of the regime change. When it has suited US, they have steadfastly
refused to intervene like in East Pakistan whereas they have intervened on the
slightest pretext in many a country from Vietnam to Grenada to Iraq and what
not. In the Cold War it was not unusual for the US to use radio broadcasts into
the East European Iron Curtain to motivate the natives to revolt against the
Communist regime. Therefore, while advising Russia, it would have been
pertinent for the US President to have remembered bit of history. The instances
that have been cited above are merely recounting those rather than delving into
the details and the consequences these interventions brought about in those
countries. Either President Biden suffers from memory loss or he wilfully
believes that US has been non-interventionist throughout its history. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-74360508750638282242021-06-12T18:59:00.002+05:302021-06-12T18:59:28.081+05:30Intuitive Qualitative Grasping of Statistic Concepts <p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Statistics invokes certain phobia in
many. Numbers create awe and fear. There are apprehensions of faltering with
numbers. Moreover, when one works with numbers, they bring together their
numerous complexities woven into a single thread of sorts. It is difficult for
some layman to comprehend the intricacies of the numbers and their findings. There
are so many tests and measures and formulas with very little grasp of what they
mean to the common man. To an outsider, it is reflective of perhaps an inferiority
complex in referring themselves as unable to comprehend statistics or for that
matter on a broader terms, the logic of mathematics. Yet when one views the
same in its applied form, they are beautiful. Beauty might lie in the eyes of
the beholder. There exists beauty and fear in the same breadth. To many,
invocation of numbers might mean to suggest one upmanship over the rest. This might
actually yield prisoner’s dilemma. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">For instance, there are contexts in
economics which might need or do with qualitative reasoning. For that matter,
many things might be explained with common sense. Yet there is someone who
wishes to explain in some grander terms to demonstrate their high competencies.
When everyone begins to do it, it conceivably turns into a rat race of sorts
thus leading to everybody being collectively worse off. There could have been a
scenario where everyone could have been better off collectively, but the pursuit
to maximize their gain or in other words be individually better off relative to
others will lead everyone in the field to adopt similar strategy – dominant strategy
and thus yield a scenario resembling of Prisoner’s Dilemma. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">Yet as one looks at the conceptualization
of statistical measures, there does exist numerous common sense examples to
help people understand the logic behind statistics. One can take an instance of
current vaccination program. There might be a desire to know the better vaccine
of the two that are being used in India. The logical way of understanding this
would be whether there exists differences in terms of breakthrough infections
between these two groups. There is one group of those vaccinated by Covishield
and another group vaccinated by Covaxin. If there were to be differences in
breakthrough infection between these two groups, then there might have to be
adopted certain remedial measures whatever they might mean. Therefore,
naturally, the researchers would collect the data and then examine the same. If
there were to purely random observations, there would exist a certain pattern
of breakthrough infections. Therefore, they would seek to examine the
differences between the observed incidences and predicted incidences. To engage
in this, there gets applied what is called the chi-square test. All the statisticians
do is to collect the data and test it to chi-square to arrive at conclusions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The question might of course be
expanded whether the breakthrough infections vary across these vaccines across
genders. Therefore, there gets added an extra qualification around which one
has to measure the efficiency. It is not suffice to say there is difference or
not but must be tested against an added parameter which in the current instance
in gender. The statistician has collected the data but he or she can longer do
with the chi-square but now will use another tool going by the name of t-test. So
in short t-test is used to test qualifiers over and beyond the chi-square test.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There might arise another question. The
comparisons across vaccines are right. However, it needs to be examined whether
everybody vaccinated with a certain vaccine generates a similar impact. In other
words, it must be examined whether the groups are uniform or there is a heterogeneity
in terms of impact within the groups. This might be for instance whether the
impact of vaccination is similar across all age groups for Covishield or
Covaxin or are there differences that exist across these age groups or between
these age groups. To test the variations within these groups or across the
groups, the statistician will now have to apply the analysis of variance of
course popularly called the ANOVA. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">In this context, it would be useful for
the policy makers to understand the age patterns of those getting infected even
after vaccination. There is a possibility that certain age groups are more susceptible
than certain other age groups. One might assume all age groups are uniformly
vaccinated. The statistician would build up a data set of all those infected by
their age group. Further he or she would plot these frequencies on a graph. Implied
is they calculate how many 20 year olds have got infected, or how 60 year olds
have got infected and so on and so forth. Once these frequencies are plotted on
a graph, the pictorial representation will give the age groups that are more
susceptible for infection. A line running through these observations is drawn
around which is called building up of the distribution. The data distributed is
examined and the variation or its square root the standard deviation is calculated.
It helps us to examine whether every group is susceptible to be infected or do
there exists age groups which are outliers either in terms of getting infected
or not getting infected. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The above instances are perhaps tip
of the iceberg of what statistics or for that the quantitative tools can
provide one. There could be numerous other examples ranging from different
factors that would influence let us say the severity of infection. In this
context, there would be data collected about different factors by examining
each patient and their severity and a relationship would be built up.
Statistical tools are not something abstract. They are made to be felt abstract
and out of the world kind of feeling by the practitioners. Yet, when they are
applied through common sense approach, numerous practical applications are
found out and can be explained in quite easy manner. There is of course a need
to make statistics easier in terms of grasping the concept. If the concepts are
understood, the applications will open at a pace of increasing returns. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is what has to be thought of in
quantitative domain rather than a focus on increasing complexity. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-20947617866686453622021-06-09T20:02:00.004+05:302021-06-09T20:02:45.460+05:30Indian Judiciary and Pending Cases <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">A recent <a href="https://twitter.com/LawBeatInd/status/1399663721501270019?s=20">tweet</a>
by LawBeat puts out an interesting perspective on the cases before the
judiciary. It quotes the Law Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad as stating there were
nearly 67000 cases pending before the Supreme Court. If one were to take the
cases pending before the High Courts, there would be 58 lakh pending cases. Given
there are 25 High Courts in the country, an average of more than two lakh cases
are pending before each High Court. If one were to dig deeper and look at the
lower courts- primarily the District Courts- the number touches around 3.3
crores. The number is expected to increase with passage of time rather than
decrease. This virtually implies there is very little time for each court to
sit and adjudicate on the cases and perhaps even lesser time to write judgment
on those cases. Assuming Supreme Court to sit around 200 days per year, they
have to handle 300+ cases per day of their sitting to dispose of the current
pending cases and on an assumption of accepting no fresh cases during this
period. Assuming each of these cases need an average of three judges to decide
and with thirty judges on the roster, each bench has to handle 10 cases per
day. Given the court sits for about 4 hours per day on an average, each case
would get about 20 odd minutes to be heard and adjudicated. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If this data is percolated, the
amount of time per case would perhaps be amounting to a few minutes or max may
be an hour. This would be itself indicative of the justice or the lack of the
same in respect to hearing the cases and consequent judgment on those cases. Furthermore,
each of those cases might go to higher courts in appeal which would eat further
time. The concept of speedy justice seems to be going for a toss. In this
context, it is worth recollecting the amount of time the higher courts both
High Court and Supreme Court spend on issues that are strictly not in their
domain but come under policy domain. They might be playing to the gallery and
might be wanting to see themselves as arbiters of good policy or whatever that
means, yet this eats into their core function of ensuring justice to those who
need it apart from interpretation of laws which is their mandate as per the
constitution. This naturally calls for a discussion on how to resolve these
issues and ensure the current backlog of cases is speedily resolved. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The solution lies in the will power
exercised by both political forces as also the judiciary. The judgments in the
various cases have made judiciary a power structure of their own. They seem to
have taken upon themselves a mandate to adjudicate anything and everything. This
has led to a situation wherein the judiciary often sits on matters making
policy rather than their original mandate. This leads to accumulation of backup
cases. The first solution that is essential is both High Court and the Supreme
Court must curb the notion of public interest litigation unless in extreme
circumstances. The rule of the judiciary must give way to the rule of
executive. There are many who want to rule through backdoor through the means
of the PILs and the courts have conveniently allowed themselves to become an
instrument for the same. The courts must resist this temptation and focus on
clearing pending cases. It is not about the number of judges but about the
exercise of powers under jurisdiction that matters. If the courts stick to
their mandate, a substantial number of cases might themselves a peaceful and quick
resolution.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At the ground level, the trials must
be expedited. There is no reason for keeping the trials in abeyance for years. Secondly,
everything need not go to the higher courts. The Supreme Court should not sit
in judgment for bail petition. The bail must be resolved at the trial court or
magistrate court themselves. The notion of risk transfer has to be eschewed. The
rules for bail can be transformed and made easier so that the lower courts in
the districts or perhaps the taluks can themselves take a decision without a
need to appeal to the higher courts. Bail should often be a right of the
accused who are deemed innocent till proved guilty except in rare circumstances
based on the facts of the case. This would ease up numerous bail petitions and
also free jails from the undertrials to a large extent. The trials must be made
swift. In this it would not be a bad idea to execute plea bargains. For all
those minor cases, the plea bargains could resolve cases in a swift pace. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">For civil cases, there must exist a
potential for arbitration and alternative resolution mechanisms and must be
resolved through such means in quick time. The process of appeals must be
eschewed and sort to be resolved at a lower levels. There can be a scope for
setting up Court for Civil Appeals and Court for Criminal Appeals above the
High Courts at different places and these be the final fora for adjudication of
cases. The effects of Article 226 or 232 must not apply to these courts. This
would free up the High Courts and the Supreme Court from the appellate jurisdiction
and focus on original jurisdiction. Moreover, given these courts being located
in different places would ease the pressure on litigants to travel to Delhi for
their cases in the Supreme Court. With reference to the cases being sent for
appeal, the Supreme Court must be granted discretionary jurisdiction so it can
select only few cases for itself. The Supreme Court must restrict to the
original mandate and not focus on other issues. Similarly, the High Court would
be the appellate court for the lower courts but would need greater number of
judges to handle its load. The career path of both judges and prosecutors must
be linked to the swiftness and accuracy in the judgments. This would be
encouragement for them to respond to the incentives and thus dispose cases
fairly fast. These are just some steps that can be taken to reduce the pendency
of litigation at various levels. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-66112325269911022402021-06-08T20:41:00.001+05:302021-06-08T20:41:02.250+05:30Compulsory Vaccination and Self Interest<p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Now that there is some certainty in
the vaccine policy announced by the government of India, it remains to be seen
how the process would be carried out going forward. The government has set
itself an ambitious target of vaccinating every eligible adult in India by the
end of this year. The target seems quite unrealistic especially going by the
current pace of the process. The pace was picking up in April before the government
decided to engage in some competitive politicking which led to the chaos and unavailability
of the vaccines. Moreover, the hesitancy on the part of the government to order
vaccines beforehand too played a role in vaccine shortages. The government had
clearly found itself on a wrong foot when the second wave stuck. The demand for
vaccines multiplied manifold but there were no vaccines. There was perhaps no
homework on the part of the government to cater to such eventuality. There still
exists a denial over the prospective third wave. Any derailment of vaccine process
might be the undoing of the current dispensation. At the beginning of the
second wave, the insensitive and crass statements by key shakers and movers in
the government decision making establishment reflected the government thinking
and added its bit in the image battering which the government took. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">At this stage, the country is
approaching nearly 25 crore vaccine mark. Given two doses per person, it would
take more than 2.5 billion doses to vaccinate the entire population. The trials
on children are on and in all probability they too would be vaccinated in the
coming months. It is important for children to be vaccinated fast so that their
school education resumes at the earliest and normalcy restored. This is perhaps
more important in the short run than a prospective children’s wave expected
sometime soon. The third wave affecting children might or might materialize but
as suggested in the previous posts too, it is important not to be complacent
something like on the eve of the second wave but take full precautions and
ensure the children remain protected. There is of course a question on how to
proceed with the vaccination process. Estimates suggests the enthusiasm to wane
in a month or so once the wave subsides. The momentum might carry forward to
around half a billion doses or so but beyond the same the push would have to be
extra strong. The government has an option of making mandatory yet given the
supply demand mismatches, the mandate might not work in the expected ways. There
could be logistical nightmares in ensuring everyone vaccinated at the earliest.
However, there is a need to protect as many Indians as possible before a
possible strike by a third wave or maybe subsequent waves. Therefore, there is
some policy trade-offs that will have to be executed in making people get
vaccinated at the earliest and in large numbers. The mandatory nature might be
challenged in the legal forum and potentially get itself into knots in the
judicial fora. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">While the judiciary is unlikely to
stay any such mandatory orders, but the government might prefer to use the
moral suasion or its persuasive powers to increase the vaccination program. There
have been past posts on how certain things being made mandatory would be a
better way to achieve societal welfare. Masks were one such instance. Another
such instance would be the vaccines. There is a personal interest in each of
the economic agents. The personal choices might tend towards not having a
vaccine. There might be many reasons including fear but the choices have to be
respected in the societal scheme of things. Yet each person unvaccinated would
carry a greater risk of infection and in turn be a source of heightened of
infecting others. Every person vaccinated would lower the risk of both getting
infected and in turn infecting others. Therefore, it is evident that societal
interest is favored towards achieving greater vaccination. Thereby, there
seemingly would exist a conflict between those not keen on getting vaccinated,
their personal choice and the benefits of vaccination which spill over to the
society. In a society, if large numbers are vaccinated, the emergent herd
immunity would protect those unvaccinated too. There would be an element of
free riding which would be exploited by few. Yet there is no algorithm to
determine who benefits without getting infected. In this context, there would
uncertainty about the prospective free riders too. Therefore, it is without
doubt that vaccination would have to be made mandatory or at least use moral
suasion to increase the pace of vaccination.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Within this, there does exist a
market based solution if one might term it so. Each agent has an incentive to
earn their daily bread. If there were to be compulsory vaccination for them to
engage in their earning daily bread, they would execute the tradeoff in terms
of getting vaccinated. In other words, it is the employers who determine
whether their employees would be required to get vaccinated or otherwise. As more
and more firms will demand employees to get vaccinated, there would be clamor
for vaccination. In essence it is about responding to incentives. The firms
have an incentive to restart production for their economic benefits. In fact,
economy has to be restarted and work with minimum hassles something possible if
large scale vaccinations happen. Similarly, for local entrepreneurs like
grocers, vegetable sellers, it is essential to get themselves vaccinated to run
their business. The same holds good for delivery persons, cab and auto drivers,
those working in infrastructure and other utility services, private persons
engaged in utility maintenance to get themselves vaccinated to keep their
offerings running. For colleges and schools, having their students and staff
vaccinated would make sense. As mentioned above, the education system is
something that needs to be salvaged and vaccine is the best way to do it. For those
engaged in travel, vaccination could help them avoid repeated testing. Therefore,
it would be in the self-interest of many a stakeholders to get themselves vaccinated
or having their staff vaccinated. This is what would have to drive vaccination
process, something repeated in the past too. The thing that is ailing is the
constraints in supply. If these constraints are eased going forward, India
might be able to increase the vaccination process thus a step towards winning
this pandemic battle. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-87931627845617943492021-06-05T20:12:00.003+05:302021-06-05T20:12:20.250+05:30India's Vaccination Drive: What Next?<p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">India seems to have seen the worst
off the second wave of the Chinese pandemic. In cities like Delhi, the pandemic
seems to have abated with the same pace in which it materialized in April. It is
perhaps a mystery on the behavior of the pandemic in terms of its spread and consequent
contraction in an equally swift time. While the country is recovering slowly
from the pandemic, the vaccination program seems to be picking some pace. The recovery
from the pandemic might be slow given the convexities involved, the pact of
vaccination would determine the pace of recovery. If the vaccination pace is
high, the chances of breakthrough infections and consequent mutations might decrease.
In fact, it is in the global self-interest that the vaccination be carried out
at a very fast pace. The global vaccination programs are still subject to the
geopolitics and protectionism, despite the US announcing lifting of barriers in
terms of supply of vaccine raw materials as also with export of excess vaccines
available in the US. There are few cures that are emerging on the horizon but
they are yet to gather pace to make a difference in terms of recovery time and
sharp declines in mortality rates across the world. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">If the vaccine pace is slow, there
is a good chance of the virus mutating and able to break through the vaccine
process. The vaccines need constant and continued reworking and upgradation but
these would become problematic during the pandemic. In fact, the uniqueness of
the current vaccination programme across the world is the fact, the vaccination
is happening at the height of the pandemic. With large population unvaccinated,
there is a good chance of spread being high and thus the breakthrough infections.
While India might have got a breather for now, there is no time for
complacency. India in fact should learn the hard lessons and be on preparation
at highest possible alert for the next wave. The virus normally lie dormant for
some period before materializing in full fury. The Spanish flu seems to have occurred
in four waves at least globally with the second being the worst. India’s
population experienced a decline over a ten year period of 1911-21
significantly because of the casualties due to the Spanish flu. If the pattern
were to be repeated, the current pandemic induced by the virus from Wuhan seem
to have to hit the peak and the subsequent waves might not materialize with the
same fury. India might get the better of them yet this would mean committing
the same mistakes what one did after the first wave. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The current strategy for India would
have to be a mass vaccination at a very high scale to achieve a sort of herd
immunity before the emergence of the third wave. In parallel, there must be
significant preparation in terms of health infrastructure and thus reduce
mortality in the subsequent emerging waves. Yet at this moment, India still
seems to be progressing at a relatively slow pace. The pace of vaccine has
picked up but the journey is too long. India has vaccinated close to 25 crore
doses but these account for a very narrow fraction of the Indian population
with the estimated requirements being in excess of 250 crore doses. The current
number is impressive no doubt but the sheer population makes India become a
laggard. Given the precarious condition of India’s health infrastructure, it
would be advisable to keep this vaccination pace fast. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The current pace is around 30 odd
lakhs per day which is expected to hit half a million per day in the next few
weeks. The government has apparently promised every eligible Indian would be
vaccinated before the end of this year. There was table of vaccines available
including the number of doses expected before the end of this year. But many of
the vaccines were still under trial and hence the table seemed to project a
best case scenario rather than something realistic. If the government wants to
follow up on its promise in all seriousness it needs to literally scale up the
program by a multiple of quite few times as the existing number. At one crore
doses per day, as mentioned in the previous posts, it might eight months or so
the vaccinate the entire population. Looked in this context, the government
projections seem very optimistic and perhaps lack a touch of reality. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The government as has been suggested
before must prepare a realistic plan of vaccination. There is no point in overstating
the intentions but underperforming in terms of outcomes. There is no room for
underperformance given the heavy costs likely to be entailed in the prospective
third wave. The government must go all out in ensuring the vaccination pace
gathers steam to hit a crore vaccinations per day within a short period of
time. Furthermore, the task is to sustain the same. The vaccination pace had gathered
pace in early to mid-April before the second wave and consequent reframing
of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the vaccination criteria put brakes
and rather sharp ones at that on the vaccination. The External Affairs Minister
did visit the US to iron out the inefficiencies in the vaccine supply chain. But
that is just one part of the problem. The problem is more in the supply side
domestically with the capacity being constrained significantly. Even if raw
materials are available, the infrastructure constraints come into the picture. The
ground work to get the facilities ready is very slow. For a country with
superpower aspirations, these are significant pointers on the limitations of
such aspirations. It is one thing to aspire yet another to have a look at the
ground reality. This ground reality has to be countered. Irrespective of the
vaccine, it needs to be produced in large numbers. These need vaccine
manufacturing units. There are numerous units, many of which are lying idle. They
should have been geared up months ago but everyone sat on the same till they
were faced with the second wave fury. There is no time to lose at this moment. It
is alright to pat on the back on these numbers which in absolute terms look impressive.
They will just pale into reality if the increase in relative terms remain slow
and India has the misfortune of facing the third wave with the economy already
in significant trouble thanks to the lockdowns. India cannot afford a third
wave neither can afford a third lockdown. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-44775600191107409532021-06-03T20:14:00.005+05:302021-06-03T20:14:55.011+05:30CBSE Exams, Chinese Pandemic and Indian Education <p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The second wave of the pandemic induced
by the Chinese virus seem to be abating in the country, yet the toll it has
taken seems to be manifesting in multiple ways. It is not just the people who
have died but the livelihoods it has destroyed might take years to recover. The
livelihoods destroyed are both on account of death of family members,
breadwinners, kids losing either one or both parents, the loss of jobs induced
by the lockdowns, the drop in demand for many goods impacting the production of
the goods among many other things. Many skilled and unskilled workers are left
hunting for jobs with little sight to their end in misery. Away from this the
children have lost their childhood. Kept confined to their homes, they might
grow very different in social experiences away from the elders. They are not
able to enjoy the natural role of playing and meeting with friends. Furthermore,
their education has been disrupted. The schools are closed and thus the
learning is almost nil. There are online classes but these are poor substitute
for natural learning that has to happen to young kids. With examinations
cancelled, there is little oversight on their learning in the past year or so. The
long term spill overs of these are not manifest yet. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">It might be long before one looks
into these dimensions and its impact on shaping the career of these kids. In fact,
even at undergraduate level, the open book exams or online exams are not the
best way to judge things. They might be a poor substitute for effective
learning. Moreover, the teachers themselves are unprepared for transformation
to online classes. The teachers are adopting makeshift methods which are
transient and beyond a point, these methods will begin to earn diminishing returns.
In this context, the decision not to conduct the Class XII exams for CBSE has
to be examined. The decision will have its spillovers given that all states
inevitably will cancel their Class XII and Class X exams. In the last academic
year, many states did conduct these exams. In fact, the CBSE had to cancel not
because it was unwilling the states were not ready to conduct them especially
Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra among others. This year, it is the decision of the
government perhaps bowing to the pressures from parents, administrators,
political parties getting over them. The decision perhaps was inevitable. The government
had little option but to cancel the exam. There are of course some political grandstanding
going on in terms of taking credit. At some ways it might be viewed as PM Modi
trying to regain some lost ground and thus maintain his appeal among the
classes which have voted for him. However, there needs to be long term
assessment of these issues of cancellation of exams. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The decision has obviously pleased
the students and the parents alike. It is no wonder they seem to be in joyous
mood as the Prime Minister met them in a surprise virtual meet. Yet, while in
the innocent years, they might pleasures in these, the long term impact might
be high. It would be about the entry into the professional courses like
engineering or medicine or allied courses. It might be about admissions into
the foundation levels of professional courses like chartered accountancy among
others. These course would require an entrance examination without which the
entry might not be possible. In many instances, the marks obtained at the Class
XII is given a certain weightage. In the new context, the weightages might have
to be redrawn completely. There would be a need to basically build the
admission process purely on the entrance exam basis. The NEET was conducted
successfully last year. This year, too there would be a need to have these
entrance exams at some point of time. In the previous year, the classes had
happened through the year and it was only the exams that had been affected. In fact,
in many ways, the learning was not affected, only the evaluation did. This year,
the learning itself has been affected. The classes have not happened and by and
large have been online. This has impacted the learning outcomes. It is not
about merely the exams but the learning that leads to these exams.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">When the learning is disrupted, it
has serious issues to students at all levels in making up at higher levels. For
instance even in the lower classes, the longer the duration the classes remain
online or closed, the more difficult it would become for the students to cope
with the increasing demands of higher classes. It is not very easy to
concentrate for long hours in online classes nor would it be easy for teachers
to design assignments or home work that would be appealing to students. As noted
above, the methods which teachers are adopting are makeshift for the immediate
needs rather than a long term design to switch to online education. The learning
curve is very steep and needs investment of different magnitude not in terms of
money or technology but in the changed mindset of the teachers delivering those
courses. If the students do not grasp the learnings, it would be difficult for
catching up. Teachers losing their track would hamper their effectiveness in
the medium to the long run. Therefore, there needs to be a solution to this
quagmire. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The only solution at the moment
would be the mass vaccination of students. This had been suggested by quite a
few this year too but the lack of vaccines might have hampered the attempt. There
needs to be prioritization of vaccinating the younger kids below eighteen years
of age. If possible, there must be an attempt to vaccinate those sitting
entrance examinations like NEET and similar other undergraduate and
postgraduate entrance exams. This would help in curbing the incidence of cases.
The only protection at the moment is the vaccination. The government cannot
afford to halt the student careers. In absence of vaccines, there is no point
in opening the campuses. The only resort is the mass vaccination. The CBSE
decision is a temporary stop gap one time and should not be a precedent. </span><o:p></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-76441324600250728302021-06-02T19:51:00.004+05:302021-06-02T19:51:26.785+05:30Naming Railway Stations<p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is invariably a controversy
when something is named. This something could be an airport, a port, a railway
station, a bus stand, a street, a road, a dam, an educational institute, a
waterway, a sanctuary or a zoo, an university or maybe countless other things. These
things invariably get named after prominent personalities or institutions. The criteria
is usually someone big associated with the ruling party of the day. There was
no surprise when anything and everything was named or renamed after the
Nehru-Gandhi family during the Congress rule. The Connaught Place was named Rajiv
Chowk, there was the Hyderabad airport which was named after Rajiv Gandhi,
there was a sea link between Bandra and Worli in Mumbai that was named after
Rajiv Gandhi. Similarly, there did arise issues when the current government
named Mughalsarai station as Deen Dayal Nagar. It is not the railway stations
were not named before. Mumbai VT was renamed as Chatrapati Shivaji Maharaj Terminus
whereas the new Kurla Terminus was named as Lokmanya TIlak Terminus. There was
Gomoh which was named after Subhash Chandra Bose. There are numerous stations
in Kolkata Metro which have been named after personalities. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">These things bring to the fore the
question whether these institutions or landmarks should be named after
somebody. For those in agreement, the next question would obviously would have
been on whom they should be named after. This would be more relevant in the context
of railway stations. When one examines the context, airports have been named
after prominent personalities including Indira Gandhi Airport, Chatrapati
Shivaji Airport of Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose Airport among others. There have
been universities named after personalities as have been many other
institutions. The Railways have had a policy of not naming trains after a
person though there do exist exceptions like a Tippu Express or Rani Chenamma
Express. In general however, railways do not name the trains after persons. In this
context, it would instructive to examine whether the railway stations should be
named after persons or institutions. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">The railway stations do represent a
sort of a landmark within their respective cities, towns and villages. In many
small towns and villages, the life revolves around the railway station. It is
the hub of life and livelihoods. It is the fulcrum around which the
conversations exist. It is the platform around which the people gather for
their daily dose of gossip. Hence it would not be inappropriate to name this
station after some person or institution. Yet, there would be questions to be
raised on the criteria to be followed as mentioned above. There would be a
natural tendency to name the railway stations or terminals or complexes to name
after the people who belong to the ruling party at the centre. There would be a
question of how many stations could be named after a single person. This is
possible given the tendency to please the ruling party. The criteria which have
to be followed must be objective and exceptions should be a case of rarity
rather than a norm. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There must be a rule that the
station must not be named after a living person. In fact, at least ten years
must elapse after the death of the person before the station could be named
after him or her. Exceptions might exist but they must be rare. For instance,
if named after a living person, they must be associated strongly with the town
something like the town itself is identified with them. An instance would be
Satya Sai Prashanti Nilayam in Andhra Pradesh. In any case, they must not be
politicians or those involved in active public life. They should be preferably
in social causes or spiritual causes. As mentioned above, these must be
extremely rare cases and not a norm. Secondly, the person or the institution
lending the name to the station must be associated with the local place. This would
be adhered with extreme strictness. If not followed, it would result into
naming every Tom Dick and Harry station after only a single individual. There must
exist only one station that bears the name of an individual or the institution.
The stations mentioned above do represent personalities that have had a local association
with those said stations. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">There is a definitely a strong and
sound logic for naming the stations. As mentioned above, the station is an
identity, a brand for the town or city or village it is serving. Therefore, it
goes without saying that the brand has to be built and nourished. As people
pass through place, it brings to them consciously or sub-consciously the
history of the town. There exists a long tail if one might term of
personalities, events and institutions that have shaped the geographies and
histories of many a city, town or village. They need to be given a place in the
sun. They need to be given a sort of identity, a sort of push that will enable the
rest of the world to know about them. It might be the Siddaroodha Swamiji in
Hubli or Sahuji Maharaj in Kolhapur or maybe some other personality in some
other city. They bring with them a sort of association with the city. It creates
a halo if used well. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: georgia;">As discussed above, there certainly
exists a scope for misuse. There certainly would arise demands for each station
to be named after someone. This demand invariably would be linked with
political connotations and that should not be surprising. There is a possibility
of diminishing returns associated with the naming since each and every station
cannot be named. Moreover, if the stations named after well known people or
institutions are skipped by trains, it might result in yet another grouse of
insulting those great people. This might create a situation for every train to
become passenger train. Alternatively, there might be complaints that naming
smaller stations are well known personalities would be insulting to them since
these stations are small and therefore the demand would be for the larger
stations to be named so. It is obvious that all sections cannot be pleased but
with the larger context of railways highlighting local histories, naming of
stations might actually be a good idea. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: georgia;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-7606469736774392482021-05-29T20:31:00.002+05:302021-05-29T20:31:12.555+05:30Marginal Productivity of Labour and Wages : A Note<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">In economics, there is a
considerable interest and natural one at that about the wages. There is a
question about the ideal wages that an employee would secure. Karl Marx had
posited that the labour produce the goods yet it is the capitalists who appropriate
all the profit. In Marx’s words, if a shoe were to cost to produce $1 and a
labour produces four shoes in an hour, he would have produced the output
equivalent to $4. Yet while the capitalist would gain a revenue of $4, he would
at best let’s say given $1 to the labour. Assuming the fixed costs and
non-labour costs to be $1, the capitalist still makes a profit of $2. This in
the long run would lead to income disparities and become a cause for the
revolution. The Marxian theory was later criticized on the grounds of human
capital theory. In the past, the posts have sought to link for instance Smiley
Curve with the Marxian propositions. Marx did face a challenge from what was
emergent as the neo-classical theory. The neo-classicalists were essentially in
favor of the pro-market models that were sought to be favored by their
classicalist predecessors. One of the neo-classicalists who talked about wages
and contribution of labour was John Bates Clark. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">Clark viewed the contribution in
terms of the marginal productivity of the workers. He argued that the workers
gained equivalent to their marginal contribution to the output. Marx had argued
that the labour got far less than their contribution with the profits being
skewed towards the capital. Clark believed that the workers would revolt if
there were to disparities in their contribution to the output and the returns
they generated from that output. In other words if there were differentials
between the output and the returns, there would be conditions conducive for the
Marxian revolution. Clark however argued that each labour got the same wages
relative to the contribution they had made to the production of the output. In other
words, the income differentials could be explained by the productivity differentials.
The productivity differentials were later sought to be explained as suggested
above by the human capital theory. According to this, greater the knowledge
essential for production or conception of the output, the greater would be
output. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">The marginal theory of productivity and
its variants explain best the Chinese paradox. China was the factory of the
world. Almost every major brand had outsourced their manufacturing to China. Yet,
the Chinese labour were earning very less. For an iPod which might cost $200,
the labour who produced it or rather assembled it got a few cents for his or
her work. This would go against the heart of labour centric production. In fact
management theories centered their propositions on the linearity of the value
chain with manufacturing adding the maximum value. Yet even when one considered
the entrepreneur who actually took the task to assemble too secured hardly a
dollar or two in the overall share. This led to the development of non-linear
models of value addition and value capture some of which have been described in
the previous posts. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">The critics however contend the
position of Clark to be more ideological rather than grounded in any theory or
empirical fact. Their assertions are bolstered by the fact that Clark emphasized
that the workers would revolt if they perceived to be receiving something less
than what deserved. This is little farfetched though the contours of the
argument remain strong. There was no doubt that Clark among other
neo-classicalists would seek to downplay Marxian models and emphasize their own
findings. The findings were without doubt rooted in ideological analysis rather
than an examination of empirical evidence. It is a different matter the
economists sought to prove their thesis through an analysis of income as
explaining productivity differentials causing changes in income. This to the critics
looked as a sleight of hand. The explanation was rooted in the financial
statements which would show the actuals rather than any evidence of workers
getting compensated as per their contribution. The financial statements do not
sit in value judgments is something well known. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">The critics contend that
productivity differentials do not explain income differentials since the output
produced is heterogeneous. One of the contentions is a farmer and singer cannot
be compared. For instance while a farmer produces an output that is tangible,
the singer’s output is something intangible. It might be the tangibility or
otherwise that results in different levels of utility to the consumers of the
goods and their disposition to pay differs. While it makes sense, there is also
a question of income distribution within the production chain. There exists a
question of whether the labourer who actually manufactured or assembled the
good deserves higher compensation or the compensation be higher for one conceptualized
the product. The linearity argument begins with an assertion that the value
addition increases with each step and hence the workers who are bringing the
same into the market must be compensated more. The non-linear argument would
revolve around the fact that without conceptualization, the work would never
have taken birth. Once the formula is known, it would be relatively easier to
produce the good and thus the marginal contribution of each unit of human
capital skilled or unskilled would differ thus necessitating the compensation
differentials. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">Without doubt, these productivity
differentials cannot be easily explained. For instance, the street performers
might gain only a pittance while their tasks might appear difficult while some
others might gain good money though their tasks appear mundane. It might also
be due to the differentials in the needs of the people who are availing their
services. The critics contend from the supply perspective if one might call it the
differentials are not linked to the marginal contribution or the needs are heterogeneous.
There does exist a demand side too. It is the nature of demand that perhaps
matters to the willingness to pay. At the heart of the same, is the willingness
to pay and this is determined by the utility the good or service offers to the consumers.
At the same time, it is the willingness to pay on the part of the employer to
the employee that determines their wages. The employees have a right of refusal
yet in a market where supply exceeds demand, it would be all but impossible to
exercise this right. Therefore, any analysis on marginal productivity theory and
other similar models must incorporate
the willingness to pay and the ability to refuse or otherwise that determines the
quantum of wages. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="text-align: justify;"> </span> </span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-55629421490408578722021-05-28T20:08:00.005+05:302021-05-28T20:08:56.055+05:30Lakshadweep Connundrum <p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Lakshadweep is the smallest Union
Territory in terms of population but is now in the news for perhaps wrong
reasons. The islands are strategically important given their location. The island
is predominantly Islamic with more than 97% of the population following the
religion. The island was relatively free of COVID-19 cases till early this year
before the explosion took place. This is primarily attributed to the dependency
on Kerala from where most of the goods are procured of. To add, the increased
tourists would have added to the number of cases. Historically, the territory
has remained sort of isolated from the rest of the country. The tribals were
generally Buddhist followers before they were sort of Arabized. Islam followed
later as an outcome of Arabization. The influence could very well been an
outcome of it being strategic maritime location. The linkage with Maldives too
existed in some ways especially with the island of Minicoy. Minicoy during the
British days came under the administration of Mangalore district whereas the
other island groups in Laccadive and Amindivi came under the direct control of
Madras. Post-independence, Pakistan had eyes on the territory but the alacrity
with which Sardar Patel acted ensured the islands remained in the possession of
India. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The islands have remained
politically isolated in many ways. It has just one Lok Sabha seat, the smallest
in fact. Therefore, in terms of political influence, its role is understandably
much diminished. Yet the islands have become a battlefield in the recent days. At
the heart of the conflict is the Administrator of the Territory Prafulla Khoda
Patel. Generally, the Union Territories are administered by bureaucrats. But the
Modi government sent in a political appointee in Patel. Patel has set off a
hornet’s nest so as to speak with the series of actions he has undertaken. At heart
would be a disruption of an equilibrium social and economic in existence since many
years. The state has been dependent on Kerala for its needs with the ports in
Kochi and Beypore being the transit hubs. The current administrator seems to be
keen on ending this and shifting the locus to New Mangalore Port. As the
business shifts towards Mangalore, this would impact Malabar and Central
Kerala. Given the suspected drug trafficking, the administration has sought to
bring in legislative changes in the criminal laws. These too have an impact on
the socio-economy of Kerala. There have been vested interests who have much at
stake in the status quo of Lakshadweep and are now anguished by the turn of
events. To add, is the question of banning cow slaughter in the state. It is a
different matter that that cattle have to be imported from Kerala primarily
Beypore. Thus there seems to be no justification for beef to cheaper
alternative in local terms as observed in the North-East for instance. Fish and
coconut based products would perhaps be geographically feasible in terms of
traditional food preferences. The issue now has snowballed into an alleged
imposition of Hindu practices on the islands. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">In Kerala, the political parties
have jumped onto the protest bandwagon. There are demands for the recall of the
administrator. Rahul Gandhi who represents Kerala in the Lok Sabha too has jumped
into the bandwagon. To many, it seems puzzling as to why the protests are being
amplified in Kerala. Lakshadweep being a single seat territory does not offer
electoral benefits on its own. To many Hindu voices on social media,
apparently, this represents the cohesion of the anti-BJP anti-Hindu ecosystem
which would defend even in the absence of any electoral visible benefits. Yet,
they are looking at a narrow perspective and committing the mistake. It is in
fact, at the heart of the Islamic question, which practices strong Broken Windows
theory. The smallest of the pieces threatened would result in counter action
that would manifest in an extreme degree. This has been observed in many
instances in the past across the country. Lakshadweep is the latest in the
bandwagon. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is debatable whether the acts of
banning cow slaughter would be feasible in a region like Lakshadweep. This might
actually boomerang and strengthen the Muslim resistance. Perhaps the trickle
down, top down approaches might not be feasible. A better approach could be
trickle up or capillary action approach. There must be a movement on the ground
that would wean away the people from beef. In fact, it might be a long process
but nevertheless good in reclaiming Lakshadweep from Islamic roots. Yet, away
from this would lie the motivations behind the opposition action. The motivations
lie in the Muslim votebank. Lakshadweep might be one small constituency, but
the Muslims are dominant force in a number of constituencies. They are
politically significant. The cohesion among the community whenever it is
threatened has been robust for years. Therefore, it would be no surprise if the
community rallies behind their counterparts in the island group. The resistance
is usually vocal and not averse to violence. Therefore, one would expect the
backlash to become stronger and more vocal beyond Kerala too. Given the
economic linkages between the mainland and the islands, it is not surprising to
see resistance being strong given the self-interest involved. The Muslim
thought leadership and clergy would obviously raise even the smallest of the
challenges or infractions as threatening the fabric of Islam and they are in
the process of doing so in this context too. The rise of Muslim parties and
leaders like Owaisi or Ajmal threaten the mainstream parties hold on the Muslim
vote. They need to be demonstrating they are doing something else they would
risk losing the Muslim vote. Therefore, given their own survival instinct and
the desire to push back at Modi regime in whatever ways they can are compelling
the opposition to raise their voice and queer the pitch for the Modi
government. Kerala has been in forefront of being sort of anti-India vibes. There
have been occasions when the past posts have talked about Kerala trying to
create a pre-1861 position in the US in the Indian milieu. The Lakshadweep
issue is the latest in this direction. The hornet’s nest has been stirred. It remains
to be seen for good or bad how Modi government handles this and keeps the
backlash localized. If it succeeds, it could mean the experiments could be
scaled up elsewhere. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5230296541847064100.post-19565667651975285012021-05-26T20:49:00.003+05:302021-05-26T20:49:24.738+05:30Archeo-Astronomy- A Note<p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">To many history might appear boring,
yet it is equally fascinating to a number of others. History is about the past.
Yet history teaches us about the present and the future. History is about
learning the right lessons. History often repeats itself as a farce often as a
tragedy. Avoiding this tragedy is something that becomes critical. It is about
regressing the past towards forecasting the future. In quantitative methods,
regression is a standard tool to understand the future through the past
correlations. History too is about building correlations of the past to project
the future. History of course differs from statistical tools in terms of its
qualitative and often subjective analysis. History is about decoding the
conditions that existed resulting in a war for instance. If a war were to be a
dependent variable, then the question would be about those independent variables
as also the interaction variables while controlling for certain variables that
determined the trajectory of the war. Since history is about understanding the
causes, the course and the consequences of the event, the causes have to be
correlated with the course and consequences. This is exactly where the causes
when get repeated might result in a similar course but perhaps tragic
consequences. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">History is about learning about the
livelihoods of the past. It is about learning the society and the norms prevailing
in the society. If history does point towards a shortcoming, it is critical to
point out the causes for the shortcoming. The shortcoming might not have
existed for centuries but would have been an outcome of a certain event.
History is also about understanding power contestations. Power has always been
fought for ever since the emergence of mankind. It has the survival of the
fittest. In other words, it might also be about the survival of the cautious. While
survival might have been inherent instinct, there were rulers at all points who
were adventurous enough to expand their empire thus their influence of power. They
were also adept at defending the situations which would threaten their country.
Survival to them was either to flourish or alternatively perish. It is believed
that hardly a ruler died in the bed in the ancient Rome. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">While history often gives us
numerous insights to enable us to plan for the future, history is also
important for many to understand what happened in those events. The course of
the events necessitate understanding the causes and the dates of the events. There
are numerous sources through which one can garner insights about history. First,
there are literary sources which yield valuable insights. Yet, impartial
sources or rather neutral sources may be hard to come by and often are written
ages after the event. There is either way colouring of the author’s own
perceptions and analysis in decoding the event. It is fascinating to think of
dating the events. For instance, one would be curious to know the approximate
dates for many a pre-historical events. In the Indian context, it might be the
era of Ramayana or Mahabharata. The two epics are historical yet there is
little clarity in dating these epics. It is believed these events happened few
hundred years before the birth of Buddha and perhaps in the early Vedic ages. There
are others who contend they could be an outcome of pre-Harappan era. Either way,
literary sources are not something conclusive while there are little other
sources to rely upon something like coins or other materials like brassware or
utensils of that era. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">In the Indian context, most of the
writings describe the events in terms of planetary formations at that time.
Indian calendar was unique in its own way. The scholarship was intrinsically
driven towards astrology what was known as jyothish shastra in India. There can
be a debate on astrology yet what is unmistakable is its dependence on
planetary and star formations. The formations do yield insights about
astronomy. The astrology emphasizes that these constellar formations impact the
human lives. There of course can be a debate on this. There is little evidence
suggesting such influences to be of significant import. It is not belittle astrology
but point towards its limitations. Yet away from the analysis, the insights
that are unearthed by the recording of those constellations and their
formations can yield useful pointers. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">When one peruses the epics in the
Indian context, they do yield lot of records in terms of planetary formations
on various days. These planetary formations as with other formations in the
galaxy and beyond do not occur every day but have a certain pattern. It is well
established that these patterns get repeated at different periods of time. For instance,
if Halley’s comet is visible at a certain point, it can be safely deduced what
year it might have been. Similarly, if recorded a solar eclipse, through
astronomy, one can deduce all possible dates on which the solar eclipse would
have occurred throughout history. These are the information that would be of
value to historians. Therefore, there is a new branch that seems to be emerging
and called archeo-astronomy. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: helvetica;">The word seems to suggest a combination
of archeology and astronomy. It seems to be linking archeological findings to
their approximate dates using the astronomical findings. This would seem
exciting. In fact, when one looks at the epics and the rich sources they yield
in terms of planetary movements this would yield good insights on their dating.
In alignment with carbon dating, this field could be of significant help. Yet this
field would need tremendous push in terms of publishing peer reviewed papers
and thus add on to the journal publications. Most of the findings seem to be
connected to astrology and its variants. Efforts must be made to divorce the
two and use the findings about planetary movements into dating things. While archeology
might be of aid, it is history that has the potential to be reshaped through
these insights. With passage of time, it is difficult to pin point events even
in fairly recent times historically speaking. If the literary resources and similar
resources are linked with the astronomical findings, it would strengthen the
findings in terms of concretization of historical happenings. Yet, the field is
in its infancy and will perhaps struggle to gain traction. However, the
potential for the same if handled with precision could be significant. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><o:p><span style="font-family: helvetica;"> </span></o:p></span></p>pk75http://www.blogger.com/profile/01823402257001987664noreply@blogger.com0